India's second wave
|Summary
Following months of receding COVID cases, India is currently in the midst of a second wave of infections. Restrictions have been imposed on major cities and a migration out of business hubs is likely to complicate the short-term outlook for India's economy. As a result, it is very likely we will be making downward revisions to our 2021 GDP forecast in our April International Economic Outlook publication. In addition, we maintain our view for gradual rupee depreciation and will only become more pessimistic on the currency if the Reserve Bank of India turns more dovish than we currently expect.
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