In the presidential election, 94% say their mind is made up
|Biden Lead Steady Quinnipiac reports Biden Keeps Above 50 Percent Mark With Steady Lead Over Trump. Key Details Shrinking Pool of Undecideds Biden's lead is steady in national polls, but that is not where the election will be won or lost. The key detail in the survey is the shrinking pool of people whose minds are not already made up. Importance of the Undecided Voter In 2017, Nate Silver commented on the State of the , Undecided Voter heading into the 2016 election. In 2016, Clinton’s lead was considerably more fragile than it appeared from national polls. Not only was she underperforming in the Electoral College because of the way her demographic coalition was configured (see the first article in this series for more about that) but a much larger number of voters — about 13 percent on Election Day and as many as 20 percent at earlier stages of the campaign — were either undecided or said they planned to vote for third-party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. Those undecided voters made Clinton’s lead much less safe and they broke strongly toward Donald Trump at the end of the race. Trump won voters who decided in the last week of the campaign by a 59-30 margin in Wisconsin, 55-38 in Florida, 54-37 in Pennsylvania and 50-39 in Michigan, according to exit polls, which was enough to flip the outcome of those four states and their 75 combined electoral votes. Where are the Undecideds? On October 25, 2016, Nate Silver asked Where Are The Undecided Voters? About 15 percent of the electorate isn’t yet committed to Clinton or Trump, as compared to just 5 percent who weren’t committed to President Obama or Mitt Romney at this point in 2012. That’s one of the reasons why our models still give Trump an outside chance at victory. In theory, with Clinton at “only” 46 percent of the vote, he could beat her by winning almost all of the undecided and third-party voters. Overall, Clinton’s chances are 85 percent in our polls-only forecast and 83 percent in polls-plus, not meaningfully changed over the past few days. Theory happened aided by an FBI twist. 2016 Comparison Flaws FBI Bombshell It still took a last second bombshell announcement by James Comey to seal the fate. Consider 4 Pieces of Evidence Showing FBI Director James Comey Cost Clinton the Election. Let's not mince words. Clinton is responsible for her loss. However, Trump would not have won without Comey. Many people expect a 2016 repeat, but there are too many key difference between now and 2016 to believe as many do, "The polls are wrong". The more pertinent questions regard Trump and Republican interference in mail-in voting and what Trump might do if no victor is declared election evening.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.