Analysis

Holiday sales fell apart at the end, but still a record

Pandemic Holiday: Earlier Goods Spending Surge Led to a Poor Finish

A shift to goods spending earlier in the year set up retailers for a big annual increase; the numbers are in and holiday sales shot up 8.7% in 2020, just shy of our call for a 9.0% gain. Despite that solid increase, the climate during the closing months of 2020 was one of fading momentum. Like a football game when your team is off to an early lead that fades in the fourth quarter; the categories that comprise holiday sales posted outright declines in the final  on ths of the year. The big gains earlier in the year were ultimately what made it happen, as we said it might. Despite a deteriorating labor market at the end of the year, curtailed spending in the service sector and canceled travel plans freed up income for spending on gifts. After the anxiety and stress of a year defined by the virus and a divisive election, a yearning for comfort and normalcy underpinned holiday spending—most of which just happened earlier than usual.

 

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