Harvey and Irma Push Up Inflation and Retail Sales
|U.S. Review
Harvey and Irma Push Up Inflation and Retail Sales
- Higher gasoline prices and replacing storm-damaged property put upward pressure on the CPI and retail sales in September. Core CPI came in softer than expected, which does little to clarify the underlying inflation trend the Fed is seeking.
- Small business owners were hit by the storms as well, but small business optimism remains strong despite contending with increasing difficulty finding qualified workers. JOLTS data in August confirmed that demand for labor is strong and September’s slip in payrolls is likely to reverse easily.
Global Review
Global Growth Appears to Have Been Solid in Q3
- Real GDP growth in Singapore, an important bellwether for global economic growth, strengthened to a three-year high in the third quarter. It appears that the British economy continued to expand at a modest pace in Q3, and real GDP growth in the Eurozone remained solid.
- On balance, global economic growth appears to have strengthened recently. However, the modest downshift in economic momentum that appears to be underway in China is a reminder that the global economy is not exactly “booming” yet either.
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