Harr's view - Spring is in the air
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Today, I reflect on my trip to the IMF/World Bank spring meetings in Washington this week and highlight where our views differ from the Fund's.
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We expect global growth to pick up speed in Q2 supported by the rebound in China and rising expectations of a US-China trade deal.
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The IMF forecasts that global growth will return to 3.6% in 2020 from 3.3% in 2019, but I do not believe the IMF has high confidence in those forecasts.
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I believe that Italy's fiscal challenge and a possible clash with Brussels will return as a market theme in the autumn, when the Italian government has to submit its 2020 budget to the EU.
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