Analysis

Germany's BDI industry association sees growth of about 1.5%

  • European stock markets trade little changed in an uneventful session. US equities opened little changed too.

  • Optimism among America's small businesses soared in December by the most since 1980 as expectations about the economy's prospects improved dramatically in the aftermath of the presidential election. The NFIB's index jumped 7.4 points last month to 105.8, the highest since the end of 2004, from 98.4 (vs. 99.5 expected).

  • Czech inflation surged more than expected in December, from 1.5% Y/Y to 2.0% Y/Y, the highest level since the end of 2012. The inflation rate hit the central bank's target six months earlier than the CNB anticipated in November 2016 and raises rumours about scrapping the EUR/CZK 27.00 peg at the start of Q2 2017.

  • Christmas food promotions dragged Norway's inflation rate lower than economists had expected in December (3.5% Y/Y vs 3.9% Y/Y expected). Underlying inflation declined from 2.6% Y/Y to 2.5% Y/Y.

  • The Turkish lira slumped to new lows, passing EUR/TRY 4.00 for the first time and extending a slide since the start of the year, as a deputy prime minister repeated a warning that the economy was under attack.

  • Germany's BDI industry association sees growth of about 1.5% this year for Europe's biggest economy, with worries about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's trade policy and about Chinese state interference dampening expectations.

  • Banks with large London operations say they will step up lobbying European officials because they are running out of arguments to convince the British government the industry needs single market access after Britain leaves the European Union.

  • S&P downgraded almost three times as many countries' sovereign credit ratings as it upgraded in 2016, and the ratings agency has predicted that the trend is likely to accelerate this year.

 

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