Geopolitical radar – Venezuela in focus
|Overall risk assessment: Elevated
We finetune our risk assessment from elevated/high to moderate/elevated, as the risk of a regional war in Middle East has clearly been reduced after Israel and Hamas agreed on the first phase of Gaza ceasefire deal. On the other hand, to balance our overall risk assessment, the risk of a new conflict is on the rise in the Caribbean, as the US is threatening to attack Venezuela. In Asia, Trump is making progress in trade talks both with China and India, but Europe, in turn, has its own woes with China. Ukraine peace talks are basically stalled after the US imposed new sanctions.
What has changed since the previous update?
There is a real risk of a new conflict erupting in the Caribbean. During the last two months, the US has conducted more than ten targeted attacks on vessels allegedly linked to illegal narcotics trade (which the UN sees violating international law). By now, they have a massive military buildup near the Venezuelan coast. The question is, what does the US want?
What to watch in November/December?
- Will the US launch a military operation in Venezuela?
- G20 meeting in Johannesburg on 22-23 November. Will Trump meet Putin?
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