Analysis

GBP/USD Risk Reversal: Sell-off set to gather pace

Friday’s upbeat US non-farm payrolls and wage growth data strengthened the bid tone around the US dollar and added to the bearish pressure around Cable. 

Daily chart

GBP/USD dropped to 1.3024; the lowest level since July 26. The daily chart below shows a bearish breakdown of the rising wedge pattern. The MACD also shows a bearish crossover. 

One-month 25 delta risk reversal coos, Vols rise

  • One-month ATM Vols currently hovers around 7.088; the highest level since July 12. 
  • The 25-delta risk reversal has hit more than one-week low of -0.425. 
  • An uptick in the volatility gauge coupled with a rise in demand for downside protection [put option] adds credence to the bearish technicals and suggests the sell-off is set to gather pace. 

GBP/USD - Sell into the rallies

The uptick towards 1.3126 levels is likely to be met with fresh offers.  On the downside, a strong support is seen around 1.2933 [July 20 low]. 

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