Analysis

FTSE flags after ECB excitement

After yesterdays dramatics, today has seen stocks stabilise, with both European and US markets looking set for marginal losses.

  • Stocks stumble towards weekend

  • EU summit creates us and them mentality

  • Could UK leave EU without a trade deal?

An interesting week is heading for a somewhat drab finish today, with both European and US indices heading for moderate losses on the day. Yesterdays ECB meeting was no doubt the key event of the week and the continued deterioration in the euro hints that despite saying that it hadnt been discussed, an extension to QE is highly likely in December. It seems December is shaping up to be the reference point for markets, with both the US and ECB expected to make a move. However, with ECB extension and the possibility of a US hike, the annual santa rally could be less certain this time around.

Today marked the end of a two day summit, which seemed to be as much about ignoring the UK's wishes as anything, with Theresa May largely on the sidelines once again. The PM calls for increasingly closer trade ties in a post-Brexit world than pre-Brexit, yet going by recent behaviour at the EU, we may not even be on speaking terms. The volatility evident in sterling crosses over recent weeks has been largely driven by the market jitters which seem to take each piece of running commentary as a make or break moment. It is certain that the negotiations wil be tough, but for the most part, recent comments are more about gaining a strong negotiating hand ahead of negotiations than truly reflecting what the final trade outcome will look like.

Perhaps the biggest risk is whether they will get a deal across the line at all, highlighted by the stuttering EU-Canada trade negotiations. One of the main reasons to leave the EU is the seeming inability of the group to agree on enough to create strong global deals. It wouldnt be surprising if the UK continues to suffer at the hands of the EU's lacklustre trade negotiations one last time on the way out.

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