France: Employment and job support measures
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The ending of the SMEs hiring premium, the sharp cutback announced in the number of government-subsidised job contracts and the less favourable CICE tax credit contribute to slow employment growth in the near term.
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An extended slowdown in 2018 is not the most likely scenario in our view.
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Growth is gaining momentum, which should bolster employment. New support factors are also expected to come into play, including tax cuts and greater flexicurity measures in the job market.
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In 2019, even though growth is expected to slow, we foresee another slight acceleration in employment, which should get a boost from the transformation of the CICE tax credit into a cut in employers' social contributions and from a further reduction in the cost of labour around the minimum wage level.
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