Financial astrology: This is the time to be taking profits, not adding new money
|1. JANUARY MARKETS
“This is the time to be taking profits, not adding new money. Without a doubt, most of the people buying today will come to regret that decision over the next few weeks as prices dip back under these levels."
Jani Ziedins, Cracked Market
HW: We agree While BULLS ARE COMFORTABLE BULLISH- I AM NOT. Stocks are NOT cheap!
THE 64K QUESTION: ARE WE THERE YET OR HOW HIGH IS UP? SPX 3250, 3300 or Higher?
As long as markets are above SP 3150, MOMO BULLS are not worried unless/until DJIA 28K becomes a firm ceiling!
This current breakout to new all-time highs came after a brief pause at SPX 3150 which is now support. Below there, support levels are circa 3125, 3065-3070, and 3025-3030. We are now experiencing (the end of?) the seasonally bullish “Santa Claus rally” period.
Will they be higher in March? I don't believe so. Will they be higher in August 2020- almost DEFINITELY NOT!
FASHION & INVESTING: Suiting
Whether you sport a blazer with jeans or go all out with a power pantsuit, suiting is a wardrobe staple for any girl boss. This trendy ensemble can take you from serious to sultry with savvy styling.
Market Translation: This is yet another indication of conservative trending of 2020.
POLITICS & INVESTING: Monochromatic outfits
From winter whites to caramel and chocolate browns, neutrals are undeniably chic. Make your mark in 2020 with a major monochromatic moment.
MARKET TRANSLATION: This is a continuation of the “All or Nothing” political trend and of the increasing role of the “independent voter” which suggests Democratic & Republican portfolios will have quite different make up and post November 2020 returns.
OUR VIEWS
Stock valuations are generally unappealing [not cheap] for most stocks.
OUR CASH POSITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MAXIMUM!
Proper Valuations:
• US$ 97-98
• CNY ~ 7
• SILVER 16.50-18.80
• US 10 Year Bond 1.88 OB
• Oil 58-62
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
• DJIA > 28000
• SP > 3069-3150
• NASDAQ > 8400-8800
• TIPS > 115
• COPPER < 3.20
• BITCOIN >1200
• GOLD > 1422
• VIX < 14
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925 Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260 Stop 280
2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]
Buy SPX 2860, 2900; KACHING SOLD 3030 & 3058 SHORT SPX 3057 & 3088 & 3149
2020 POSITIONAL TRADING
New Trading Shorts next week as the odds more favor a down early January.
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: indias-economy-came-back-down
NOTE: THERE WILL BE NO WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK next week
KEY DATES: December 30, January 2, 3
DJIA: 28500 PIVOT
SPX: 3240 PIVOT S1 3200 S2 3150 S3 3100
NASDAQ: 9000 PIVOT
GOLD: 1515 PIVOT S1 1500 S2 1480 S3 1450 R1 1525 R2 1550 R3 1568
SILVER: SUPPOR1 16.50-16.80 RESISTANCE 18.20-18.80
OIL: 60 PIVOT 62 or 65 RESISTANCE?
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: 2020 à 3.11+
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: S1 7500 S2 6500 S3 5000 8000 RESISTANCE?
2019 CLOSE:
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDA 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1422
Reduce risk and Focus on Capital Preservation: THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. Watching tax-loss selling small & microcaps for potential quick trading profits.
HW: AFUND SHORT WATCH:
Netflix (NFLX) $325+, Tesla (TSLA) $400+, Bitcoin (BTC),
With the exception of special situations, we would rather exit markets or at least continue to rotate stock sectors into value.
Favorite 2020 Sectors:
Entertainment, Mining, Selective Health Care (lower cost/better outcome) & TECHNOLOGY (Undervalued & Highly Scalable)
CONSIDER BUYING QUALITY SMALL CAP JUNIORS THAT WERE FUNDEMENTALLY UNJUSTIFIED BEING HIT BY TAX LOSS SELLING IN DECEMBER.
Stock selection is important. We recommend stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets & growing dividends.
Actively managed portfolios should continue to outperform index funds into 2020.
3. Copper remains HIGHLY undervalued. It is a pawn of the US/China trade spat .
The CNY is currently 6.99: Below 7.02 is positive, while IF above 7.08, it would again be negative for Copper & other markets.
However we note gold is generally under favorable astrological influences in 2020.
Gold bugs are happy now that some generalist investors are beginning to join the party: However, we still see it as slightly expensive just now.
We believe gold valuations will largely sport at or above Fair Value into the Year of the White Metal Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and only selectively add FALL 2019.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
- NEW: Some investors are now hedging record equity prices by buying gold.
Gold FV $1422 = Commodity FV: 1368 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1388 + Crisis FV: 1544.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG into 2020 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we may periodically short gold above $1515-1522. For silver our current selling numbers remain $18.20 - $20.
We would be very happy to reBUY Gold < 1415-1425 & Silver < 16-16.80 in Q2 2020.
4. “Markets are so depressed, valuations are so low, you know that 10 years out you’ll have this shortage in some of the metal market. Now’s the time to invest.”
Willem Middelkoop, founder, Commodity Discovery Fund
HW: Now THAT is a real long term investing perspective.
“Some people are looking for a 6% to 8% pullback in January.”
said veteran Tim Anderson, New York Stock Exchange floor trader
HW: Certainly possible, overdue and healthy.
“There’s the feeling that everything’s coming up roses. I think that once we get into the new year and we look at some of these numbers, particularly earnings, whether that bears out is another story.”
Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist, Silvercrest Asset Management. “
HW: Time will tell.
5. heres-a-warning-for-investors-who-are-tempted-by-this-year-end-rally-for-stocks-
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