Financial astrology: How High is Up? How Low is Down?
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1. Buy or Sell Markets? This depends on your time frame!
Prices can turn quickly on different headlines– Trader’s Delight/Investor’s Hell.
Favorite 2020 Sectors: Mining, Selective Health Care (lower cost/better outcome) & Entertainment.
Here at P2 3058 we have sold more (exited, hedged etc.) while P3 3150 is possible before 3010 or 3000 support test, it is not the way I choose to bet.
We said May was doubly negative and October markets would go to record highs- Bingo!
So now THE 64K QUESTION: WHITHER STOCK MARKETS NEXT: How High is Up? How Low is Down?
SPX 3066, 3150 or Higher? SPX 3010, 2990, 2925 or Lower?
Unless you closely track the horoscopes of President Trump, Chairman Xi AND Fed Chairman Powell, the correct answer is unknown.
OUR VIEWS
Unless/until there is REAL US/China Trade deal progress, markets will continue be TRADING MARKETS.
Markets currently have an upside bias, but valuations are increasing unappealing for more than a few stocks.
If Xi/Trump kiss in November, markets will rally strongly and then we plan to sell more! If they spit, after we will buy for a XMAS rally.
Proper Valuations:
DJIA 26500-27500
US$ 97-98.10
OIL 52-58
CNY < 7.08
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
SP > 3058
NASDAQ > 8300
US 10 Year Bond < 1.85
TIPS > 115
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN > 8800
GOLD > 1450
SILVER > 18.10
BP < 130
FIRST EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2945 KACHING: Both Covered 2840!
SECOND EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS):
Sell SP 2888, Sell 2880 KACHING: 2812 & 2750 Buy Gold 1286, 1280 KACHING 1400, 1410
THIRD EPISODE OF YOU BETCHA YOUR LIFE (SAVINGS)
Sell SP 2954, Sell 2964, & 3000; KACHING Closed 2940 & 2925 & 2925 Buy Copper 270, 266 & 260
H2 2019 POSITIONAL TRADING:
Copper 274, 266 & [292 Copper open from H1 2019]
Buy SPX 2860, 2900; SOLD 3030 & 3058 SHORT SPX 3057+
HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: How to take advantage of the January Effect in the U.S. stock market
KEY DATES: November 11-18
DJIA: 26800 SUPPORT
SPX: 3010 R1 3030 R3 3058 R3 3150
NASDAQ: 8000 SUPPORT 8250 PIVOT 8500 RESISTANCE
GOLD: 1512 PIVOT 1480 SUPPORT R1 1525 R2 1550 R3 1566
SILVER: 17.50 SUPPORT? 18 PIVOT R1 18.50 R2 19.50 R3 20
OIL: 56 PIVOT 52 SUPPORT 58 RESISTANCE
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: 2020 à 3.50+
US 10 year WATCH
BITCOIN: 10000 RESISTANCE 7500 SUPPORT
2018 CLOSE: DJIA 23327 SPX 2506 & NASDAQ 6635
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDAQ 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1412
Reduce risk and Focus on Capital Preservation: THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. With the exception of special situations, we would rather exit markets or at least rotate stock sectors.
Stock selection remains important. We recommend buying stocks sporting strong cash flows, sound balance sheets and growing dividends.
Actively managed portfolios should continue to outperform index funds in current bifurcated markets and into 2020.
3. Mining companies to 'significantly outperform' market
india-s-shifting-demographics-have-led-to-lower-gold-purchases?
Copper remains the most undervalued commodity we track. It is a pawn of the US/China trade spat.
We are close to the CNY moving back under 7-- we can then expect a quick retest of 2.80-3.00 OB!
Currently below 7.08 is positive while above 7.18, it would be negative for Copper & other markets.
While Silver $20 & $25 is possible in the future, we do not see it short term. We do want to see lower prices, so we can again be on the long side. Ditto with Gold.
However we note gold is generally under favorable astrological influences this year and next.
Gold bugs are happy now that more generalist investors are beginning to join the party: . However, we see it as too expensive just now.
We believe gold valuations will largely sport at or above Fair Value into the Year of the Earth Rat (2020).
Just as it was undervalued for a long time, it CAN and is likely to be overvalued for a LONG time. While fundamentally gold is currently overvalued, in much of the Fall, the astro is positive for gold.
We advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection and only selectively add FALL 2019.
- Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
- For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1412 = Commodity FV: 1358 + Currency FV: 1388 + Inflation Metal FV: 1366 + Crisis FV: 1528.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2019 (recommending a precious metal sector buy/hold rating and occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
However as traders we may periodically short gold $1510+. For silver our best selling numbers remain $18-20.
4. “Every bear market of the past 50 years has witnessed an actual decline in S&P 500 forward earnings.”
Francois Trahan, lead strategist, UBS
HW: This is beginning to happen now- 2021 is coming soon.
“The market is finally breaking out of this trading range, and it is headed higher,"
Andrew Slimmon, managing director, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
HW: It may go to P3 3150 or pause and retest 3000 support first.
“It’s been a pretty good reporting season so far, given expectations going in. We are still looking at a decline in earnings, but much better than feared.”
Lindsey Bell, chief investment strategist, Ally Bank
HW: Yes, it must be different this time.
5. new-stock-market-volatility-measure-shows-rough-years-getting-tougher-while-quiet-years-are-more-rare
the-feds-next-rate-decision-
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