Financial astrology for the successful investor and trader

1. We will not be having a WSNW issue next week for two reasons:

1.1) Given so much depends on the December 18, 19 FOMC meeting that is largely a waste of time to forecast WHAT the FED will do (We believe we know WHAT they should do however).  So it is about preparation.

1.2) We are preparing for our 2019 Market Forecasts live 

 

2.     We left last week keeping to our strategy to continue stock trading buys on non-fundamental weakness but either actively Day Trading or Standing Aside.

Our advice: Continue to lock in or prepare to sell ALL stocks you don't want to own in 2019. If the FED “behaves”, this may be done in January, and not December and/or May. However, if/as “reasonable” Price Targets have been reached or exceeded AGAIN, it is will be time to Protect (stops), Rotate and/or selectively Distribute/Sell.

If you are not an active trader, it is wise to protect profits with appropriate trailing stops, but also not to miss multiple US TRADE WAR VICTORY RALLIES.

Our recommendations:

• Be Selective- Stock Picking will outperform Index Investing
• We continue to use stops and hedging, raising cash and/or writing calls promotes sound sleep.
• New trades & investments best in Long/Short Pairs

 

BOTTOM LINE:

Given some inflation, elevated geopolitical risk, trade war and emerging market concerns as well as frequent overvaluation,

it is never wrong to Take/Protect profits ahead of the next two FOMC meetings or the New US Congress.

While many “concerns” are merely noise; however, three we are watching are:

• The market’s short-term reaction to trade wars;
• China Internal & External response to its 2019 Saturn influence;
• The December FOMC meeting anticipation & reactions: This now is less a risk.

NOTE: A Fed interest rate increase in both January and/or December will trigger a short-term drop in markets. 

Likewise, “3 rather than 4” interest rate increases in 2018, and/or skipping January 30 rate increase will trigger another short-term rally in markets.

 

Proper Valuations:

TIPS  110 OB

DJIA > 24000+

 

IMHO “Improper” Valuations

US 10 Year Bond  <3.00

OIL < 55

COPPER < 3.20 

BITCOIN > 2500

GOLD < 1375

SILVER < 18

 

TRADING NOTES

Short term, we are cautiously bullish: given the strength of the US economy, abundant company profits as well as President Trump’s 2018 Horoscope.

While DJIA, NASDAQ & SPX HAVE ALL EARLIER REACHED POTENTIAL PROTECT ZONES as forecasted, they easily can rally again as THE US TRADE WARS ARE WON and especially if the FED relaxes!  Note we do not plan to short aggressively before early 2019 (Late January or December 2018 potentially & May definitely)

 

CURRENT POSITIONAL TRADES: 

Triple Long DJIA  23860, 23960 & 24,334

Triple Long Gold 1290, 1280 & 1266

Triple Short Bonds 2.86, 2.78 & 2.84   Bought 3.20,  3.18 & 3.22 resold 3.05, 3 & 2.95

Triple Short BTC 19,000, 7400, 6200 

 

TRADING HEDGES: 

Sell Oil 73.50/Buy Copper  2.95  Oil unwound 68.00 Resell 72.50 unwound 64 Long Oil 55 Sold 58  Long 51

Sell Oil 74.00/Buy Copper 2.83   Oil unwound 66.20  Resell 74 unwound 66

Sell Oil 73.33/Buy Copper 2.75   Oil unwound 68.20  Resell 76 unwound 68

 

Buy Gold 1188/Sell BTC 6380

Buy Gold 1182/Sell BTC 6650

Buy Gold 1196 /Sell BTC 7370

 

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Bitcoin is close to becoming worthless

 

FORTHCOMING: Register here to attend our 11.55am December 21 Shindig webinar:

The Astrologers Fund 2019 Forecasts for the Stock Market, Trump, Gold and Crypto  

   

 

KEY DATES:      December 10, 19, 21

DJIA:                    R1 26000 R2 26500 R3 27000

SPX:                     2750 PIVOT

NASDAQ:           7000 PIVOT 
GOLD:                 1225 PIVOT

SILVER:              1400 SUPPORT R1 14.50  R2 15.50 R3 16 R4 18

OIL:                      S1 50 S2 48  S3 46  R1 55  R2 58 R3 60

COPPER:             STEADY ACCUMULATE: H2 2018-2019 à3.50+

US 10 year         Sell 3.00 OB IT à3.20

BITCOIN:             4200 RESISTANCE S1 3800 S2 3500  S3 2500 H2 2018 à 5000 OL BULLS EYE!

TIPS:                    TIP H2 2018 à 1.08

The Market Marker remains some cautious concern.

 

2017 CLOSE:          DJIA 24719 SPX  2673 & NASDAQ 6903

2016 CLOSE:          DJIA 19762 SPX  2238 & NASDAQ 5383

2015 CLOSE:          DJIA 17425 SPX  2044 & NASDAQ 5007

AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1370
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

 

1.      2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS

2.      December 5 at our Special Situation Luncheon, we presented two healthcare companies that we believe can rally 50 or more in 2019:

3.      CEL-SCI & NOVA LEAP HEALTH

5.      We are basically doing little beyond making Holiday plans.

6.      When markets drop, we BUY. Should markets retest highs (Trump/Xi happy face meeting or FOMC sanity-not to raise rates in December) we will SELL/STOP thereafter.

 

3. We continue to recommend Maximum Allocation or fresh precious and base metal investments for the intermediate and long-term, given that the precious metal sector and copper are obviously very undervalued!

Despite headwinds from US interest rates rising, happily, there will be less competition from MMJ & Bitcoin “investors” as time goes on.

A $1350 ($1400) target test in 2019 seems reasonable. With seasonal strength upon us and with unfavorable astro ending, we advise patient precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.

·         Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.

·         For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!

Gold FV $1370 = Commodity FV: 1332 + Currency FV: 1380 + Inflation Metal FV:1368 + Crisis FV: 1400.

Gold/Silver ratio à 74  Silver FV $18+.

INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2018 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).

We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver our first selling numbers remain $20+. .

 

4. “We’re seeing new lows in everything for the year. It’s a risk-off environment all around. No risk assets are safe.  Cash and treasuries are the only things that will be up with this pervasive sentiment." 

David Tawil, president, ProChain Capital

HW:  At times this will be profitable, but at others times, not.

“The market goes down, it doesn’t matter what the news is. A market ready to go down is going to go down.”

Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist, RW Baird

HW: 100%!

 

5. Amid Stock-Market Corrections, the Boring Becomes Beautiful  

 

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