Analysis

Factory Orders Head Higher in May

Factory orders rose a better-than-expected 0.4 percent in May, as nondurables climbed 1.1 percent and core capex orders were revised up. Nevertheless, equipment spending still looks to be off the pace set in H2-2017. 

Nondurables Carry Factory Orders in May

  • Factory orders increased 0.4 percent in May. Stronger growth in durables orders relative to last week’s advanced report and a 1.1 percent jump in nondurables explain the upside surprise.
  • Core capital goods orders in May were revised up from an initially-reported decline to a 0.3 percent gain. That was in part at the expense of April’s orders, however, leaving the three-month average annualized pace at 4.7 percent.

Not as Strong as Late Last Year But Still Solid

  • Although a slowdown in orders since the end of last year indicates equipment spending will not hit the double-digit pace registered in the second half of 2017, we still expect to see investment rise at  a respectable clip in the second quarter.
  • Unfilled orders continue to creep higher, while inventory growth slowed in May. Tighter supply chains signal factory activity should remain strong in the second half the year. 

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