EUR/USD returns lower as it fails to surpass 40-SMA
|EURUSD remains under pressure and the risk is still to the downside as prices continue to drift lower from the 1.1450 high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the downleg from 1.1815 to 1.1175, near 1.1325. Also, the price found strong obstacle around the 40-simple moving average (SMA) in the daily timeframe.
The RSI is hovering just below 50 and the stochastic oscillator has reached oversold area, with the %K line set for a bullish cross with the %D line, a signal that a possible upside reversal is nearing.
Immediate resistance could come from the 23.6% Fibonacci of 1.1325. A decisive break above the SMAs, could send prices towards the upper Bollinger band around 1.1400 before a test of the 38.2% Fibonacci of 1.1420 and the 1.1450 resistance. Moreover, if the market pushes the pair even higher, the 50.0% Fibonacci around 1.1500 could also act as a significant hurdle.
On the other hand, if the price fails to jump above the SMAs, it could hit the 1.1270 bottom again, where a possible penetration of this obstacle could drive the pair even lower, probably towards the lower Bollinger Band near 1.1200 and then until the 21-month low of 1.1175. More downside pressure could open the door for the 1.1115 level, taken from the low on June 2017.
Summarizing, EURUSD seems to be bearish-to-neutral in the short-term, while in the medium-term, the pair continues to post lower lows and lower highs, framing a bearish picture.
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