EURUSD: Neutral –Prefer to buy dips
|EURUSD: 1.1852
EurUsd is firm again today, after the solid EU PMI readings although the range has been tight because of the US holiday.
The 4 hour/daily momentum indicators are still pointing higher, and further gains look possible so buying dips is currently favoured. Further out though, the weeklies do still point lower so I would expect conditions to be choppy but with a near term upside bias.
If so, above the near term resistance at 1.1855/60 would find good sellers at 1.1880/85, beyond which would then allow a run towards 1.1900+, with little resistance then to be seen until 1.2000.
On the downside, minor support will today be seen at 1.1800/10 a break of which would allow a return to 1.1780/1.1800 ahead of stronger levels at 1.1735 although this looks unlikely to be seen heading into the weekend.
Preferred Strategy: For Friday, I prefer to adopt a fairly neutral stance given the US long weekend holiday, although buying dips may be a plan.
The German IFO will be the data risk today, while speeches from the ECB’s Constancio and Coeure.
| 24 Hour: Neutral –Prefer to buy dips | Medium Term: Neutral – Prefer to sell rallies | ||
| FX Charts Position: | Flat | ||
| Resistance | Support | ||
| 1.2004 | 22 Sept high | 1.1830 | Minor |
| 1.1936 | Minor | 1.1812 | Session low |
| 1.1900 | Minor | 1.1800 | Minor |
| 1.1885 | (61.8% of 1.2091/1.1553) | 1.1770 | 200 HMA |
| 1.1855/57/59 | Session high/20 Oct high/16 Nov high | 1.1735/31 | 100 DMA /22 Nov low |
Economic data highlights will include:
German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, US Flash Manufacturing/Services/Composite PMIs, Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
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