Analysis

European FX Outlook: ECB and Fed speakers headline Monday


What you need to know before markets open

  • The Asian stocks closed higher on Monday as the US benchmark Treasury yields fell slightly to 2.96%.
  • US Foreign Secretary Pompeo says the US will lift sanctions if North Korea dismantles nuclear weapons program.
  • Mahathir returns to power at the age of 92 after winning the Malaysian elections.
  • The ECB and the Federal Reserve speakers headline the day with no macro data scheduled.
  • Cryptocurrency fans will enjoy St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard presentation at the CoinDesk conference in New York.

Monday’s market moving events

  • Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester is scheduled to speak at the "Central Bankers Outlook Keynotes with Francois Villeroy de Galhau, governor, Banque de France" event of the Global Interdependence Center's Central Banking Series, in Paris at 6:45 GMT.
  • ECB executive board member Yves Mersch is scheduled to deliver a keynote speech at Central Bank Governors' Club Meeting hosted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in Bodrum at 10:00 GMT.
  • ECB executive board member Sabine Lautenschläger delivers a speech at Copenhagen University in Denmark at 10:15 GMT.
  • ECB chief economist Peter Praet participates at the lunchtime MNI Connect Roundtable in London at 11:45 GMT.
  • St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard is set to deliver a presentation at the CoinDesk's Consensus 2018 in New York City at 13:40 GMT.
  • ECB executive board member Sabine Lautenschläge speaks at Danmarks Nationalbank's biannual high-level networking seminar on economic and financial issues in Copenhagen at 15:00 GMT.
  • ECB chief economist Peter Praet participates at the joint Bank of England, ECB, Federal Reserve Board Gender and Career Progression Conference in London at 16:15 GMT.
  • ECB executive board member Benoît Cœuré gives a dinner speech at the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies conference on the World Economy in Geneva, Switzerland at 17:45 GMT.

Major market movers

  • The US Dollar saw another consolidation date on Friday with the major currencies.
  • Euro is set to retest 1.2000 against the US Dollar as the US Treasury yield stabilize lower.

Friday’s macro summary

  • Spanish CPI rose 0.8% m/m in April while decelerating to 1.1% y/y.
  • St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the potential for increased business investment could allow faster growth without inflation adding another reason not to raise rates. Bullard repeats concern further Fed rate rises could make yield curve invert signaling possible economic downturn.
  • Canada’s employment report saw a disappointing increase in number on unemployed by 1.1K in April with unemployment rate dwelling at 5.8%.
  • ECB President Mario Draghi delivered a rather academic speech at the University in Florence.
  • Michigan consumer confidence remained at the unchanged level in May compared with April standing at 98.8.e to 98.5 in May.
     

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