Euro area is still not out of the woods
|Market movers ahead
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Although the euro area economy continues to show signs of weakness, we expect a slight acceleration in the Q1 growth rate released next week. Both headline and core inflation are expected to rebound, but seasonality continues to muddy the picture.
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Payrolls data in the US should give a solid print next week, but it is still worth looking out for a deceleration in employment growth.
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With continued Brexit uncertainty and weak economic data out of both the UK and Europe, we do not think the Bank of England will change its policy at the upcoming meeting.
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A number of interesting figures from China should confirm our view that the worst is behind us, but distortions from the Chinese New Year could pose a downside risk.
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Norwegian and Swedish PMIs are worth looking out for next week.
Weekly wrap-up
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Euro area PMIs did not bring the big rebound that markets were expecting and suggest that euro area growth momentum has remained modest at the start of Q2. However, we are seeing more signs of stabilisation in manufacturing.
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The Riksbank became the latest central bank to backtrack on plans to tighten monetary policy, lowering its rate path and postponing a planned rate hike until early 2020, while also extending the QE programme until December 2020.
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Following a week of thin Easter trading, oil prices rallied after the US administration surprised markets by announcing it would not renew waivers on sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
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