EUR, GBP, JPY, Yellen: levels, Ranges, Targets
|Posted today is concepts and new revelations to Realignment as it pertains to 2015 to 2017 but deeply focused on Jan 15, Feb / March 15 and September - November 2015. Realignment was always addressed by prior articles and 1 upper tier bank in broad concepts and this is a wrong view as mini Realignments occurr within a market period. Drastic monetary policy changes occurred within the focused months. Once October 2015 was over, markets traded back to normal and this normalcy survives today and it appears so far, more of the same will be seen in 2018. So far is a caveat until reported differently. Few takeaways.
USD/JPY is an incredibly minor currency pair. If USD/JPY wasn't included in the US Exchange Stabilization Fund and the United Nations SDR program then it would be relegated to the category of the Iraqi Dinar, or Afghani AFN.
Because of the ESF and SDR, USD/JPY as well as EUR/JPY because of EUR/USD, deserves special attention. The main 3 pairs in all currency trading in decades past, present and future are EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and USD/JPY. Not even DXY deserves attention. Its another extremely minor currency.
Every Fed Monthly Statement mentions "The Dollar" went up, went down. Its not specifically mentioned as DXY. Fed investments including currencies span 1 year time frames from September to September. The Fed as investors lost in 2015 $28 billion in SDR's and #29 billion on EUR and JPY trades. For context, the FED may never recover losses in EUR and JPY trades. Losses are enough to bankrupt every retail currency broker in the US.
Fed Minutes has got to be the most worthless read in the history of the world and month after month, year after year. The exact same words are written only rearranged every month, every year. Board member votes? Keynesians vote as 1 big block every month, every year. Minutes has got to be the most non market event in the history of markets.
Most vital read are Fed Statements because much is missed, analyzed nor ever reported . Queen Yellen was intent on Raising Fed Funds in January 2015 and it was clearly obvious from Statements. The only question was when. Forget the read to economic forecasts as they remain always wrong.
Queen Yellen's press conferences are the most perfectly scripted events ever seen in the history of plays. She insults good intelligence by regurgitating dribble from past statements. She hasn't offered an ounce of substance, new or actionable informatioin her entire tenure as falling Queen. Equally tragic are reporters. They ask questions that were already reported in Statements. Makes scripted Yellen look like a genius.
Queen Yellen is clearly a Keynesian, conservative Ideologue. She doesn't believe nor likes markets because she lacks control. Yellen lacks abiity to deviate from QE and Keynesian practices. Yellen could've raised Fed Funds in January 2015 when rates were on the floor but she couldn't do it without backing from new Repo facilities as control. Took an entire year to raise. I expect the same in Powell as he voted 100% with the Keynesians.
GBP/USD. Overall break points, 1.3147 and 1.3108. Break points below to 1.3056 are 1.3115, 1.3089 and 1.3072. GBP currently trades at the low end of the range. Breaks higher must cross today 1.3115 and 1.3128 then 1.3158.
GBP/JPY. Overall break points today, 147.78 and 146.51. To see 149.09 then watch 148.46 and 148.27. Higher must break 148.77 then 149.09.
EUR/USD. Overall Break points, 1.1615 and 1.1793. Below must break 1.1632 then 1.1623 and 1.1609. Watch 1.1675 above.
USD/JPY. Overall break at 112.73 is close the next comes 111.43. Below break are 113.27, 113.14 and 112.99. Higher must break 113.58.
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