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Analysis

Do you know the tariff man? US trade deficit blows out in January

Summary

The U.S. international trade deficit widened to $131.4 billion in January, which is the largest on records going back to 1992. A 10% surge in imports swamped a respectable 1.2% gain in exports. The data are reflective of domestic companies getting ahead of new tariffs and pose sizable downside risk to real GDP growth in the first quarter.

Off the charts

As foreshadowed by the advance data on merchandise trade last week, the U.S. international trade deficit widened to $131.4 billion in January. That is the largest on records that begin in 1992 and is a continuation of a widening trend that began in November (chart). A 10% surge in imports ($36.6 billion) swamped a respectable 1.2% gain in exports ($3.3 billion). The data are reflective of domestic companies getting ahead of new tariffs by pulling forward shipments of imported goods in January.

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