Cycle Trading: The Dollar Breaks Lower
|The dollar broke lower on Monday, continuing its daily downtrend.
The dollar's daily cycle count is a bit unclear. Day 28 could have hosted a daily cycle low making Monday day 9 of a new daily cycle. But recently the dollar's daily cycle has been stretching past day 30 days, which would make Monday day 38. There is also a bullish divergence that is developing on the True Strength Indicator that also supports this view. And 38 days would place the dollar deep in its timing band for printing a daily cycle low. At this point a swing low accompanied by a close above the 10 day MA will signal a new daily cycle. A break above 97.33 will form a swing low.
And if the dollar beings a new daily cycle, that could cause the Miners to print one more left translated daily cycle.
The daily Miner cycle peaked on day 9 then formed a swing high the next day. Monday was day 12 for the daily Miner cycle. The Miners would need to break above the day 9 high of 23.67 to shift the odds towards a right translated daily cycle formation. However, there was a large Selling on Strength number for GDX that indicates a possible turning point for the Miners. So if the Miners break lower then a peak on day 9 should still result in a left translated cycle formation. And a close below the 10 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline.
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