Analysis

Cycle Trading: Preponderance of Evidence

Monday we were looking for evidence that day 23 did host a daily cycle low.

Normally 23 days is too early to expect a daily cycle low.
Part of our rationale to consider day 23 as the DCL included:

  • Swing Low off of support at the 200 day MA

  • Closed above the 10 day MA

  • Closed above the declining trend line.

  • Delivered a bullish TSI Zero Line Crossover

Since then stocks managed to turn the 10 day MA higher.  Stocks have also broke above the 50 day MA to close above the upper daily cycle band. Closing above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend.  It also convinces me that day 23 hosted an early DCL.   And now that stocks have begun a new daily uptrend they should remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

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