Cycle Trading: Oil Confirms New Daily Cycle
|The daily oil cycle peaked on day 32, formed a swing high, and then began its daily cycle decline. Oil printed it lowest point last Thursday, day 41, placing oil in its timing band for a daily cycle low.
Oil formed a swing low on Friday. Then it closed above the 10 day MA and the declining trend line to confirm that Monday was day 2 for the new daily cycle. Oil also closed above the upper daily cycle band, continuing in its daily uptrend. And the correct strategy in an uptrend is to buy the dip.
However the longer term picture suggests to proceed with caution.
Oil has now entered the 4th daily cycle for the current intermediate cycle. This is week 25, which places oil in its timing band to seek out an intermediate cycle low. So while our expectation would be to see this new daily cycle form as a left translated, failed daily cycle oil could still rally for 2 to 3 weeks and still form as a left translated daily cycle.
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