Analysis

Cycle Trading: Miner Alignment

The Miners formed a swing low on Monday.

The Miners printed their lowest point on Friday, day 13, which is early to expect a daily cycle low.  However the Miners delivered a bullish signal by closing back above the 50 day MA. Now a close above the 10 day MA would have us label day 13 as the DCL. 

While we cannot, at this point, be certain that the Miners have printed their daily cycle low, alignment from both gold and the dollar makes this a more likely scenario.

Gold printed its lowest point on Monday, following the day 15 peak.  Monday was day 43, placing gold deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low.  Monday's bullish reversal also eases the parameters for forming a DCL. A break above 122.53 forms a swing low to signal a new daily cycle.

The dollar's daily cycle appears to have topped which would be in alignment with gold printed a DCL.

Monday was day 24 for the dollar's daily cycle.  Bearish divergences are developing on then momentum oscillators which we normally see during a cycle top.  And Monday the dollar also printed a doji, which often heralds a change.A break below 93.42 will form a daily swing high and then a break of the daily cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline.

In the Weekend Report I plan to break down the dollar's longer term 3 year and 15 year cycles and how that relates to gold.

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