Cycle Analysis: Stay defensive until early/mid October
|Question: IS IT STILL TOO SOON TO SAFELY BUY?
Answer: Yes. However, we plan to return in FORCE before the end of October.
Given the potential market risks, even if they don’t retrace short term, the risk/reward on the long side remains unacceptable except for medium term special situation holds.
Exactly WHEN remains unknown at present.
MARKET MARKERS for GO AWAY 8/4 remains in force:
8/04 Markers DJ 22092 SP 2476 NAS 6351
9/22 Markers DJ 22349 SP 2502 NAS 6426
Our thoughts currently are to stay defensive until early/mid October
Traders: Nasdaq company shorts preferred in September.
TRADING NOTES
Maintain high liquidity, remain hedged and defensive
While we were surprised that Gold broke $1325, we recommend more buys $1290-1300.
|
2016 CLOSE |
19762 |
2238 |
5383 |
15.96 |
1152 |
53.89 |
|
9/22/2017 |
22349 |
2502 |
6426 |
17.02 |
1299 |
50.64 |
|
PIVOTS |
22268 |
2500 |
6448 |
17 |
1300 |
50 |
|
SUPPORT |
21888 |
2440 |
6250 |
16.50 |
1280 |
48 |
KEY DATES: SEPTEMBER 25, OCTOBER 5, 11
DJIA: 22000 SUPPORT?
SPX: 2500 PIVOT
NASDAQ: 6500 RESISTANCE
GOLD: R1 1310 R2 1325 R3 1340
SILVER: 17 PIVOT
OIL: 50 PIVOT ITà$57+
US 10 year REDUCE IT à 2.75-3.00 [RESISTANCE]
The Market Marker includes some cautious concern.
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
2015 CLOSE: DJIA 17425 SPX 2044 & NASDAQ 5007
2014 CLOSE: DJIA 17823 SPX 2058 & NASDAQ 4736
2013 CLOSE: DJIA 16576 SPX 1848 & NASDAQ 4178
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1388
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK+
We are happy with the activity of the Oil and Bond markets, but not with Gold. We did not expect it to break $1325 P2 support. When it broke down below P3 1300, we issued another buy circa $1290. Given North Korea et al., we still expect precious metals to increase in the near and intermediate term.
Note: Last Monday our favorite new emerging precious metal royalty company (and client) Cipher Resources (CIFR.V) traded at 9.39.31 am.
Astrologers will note Jupiter partile or exact on the Ascendant and in tight opposition to Uranus on the Descendant.
Translation: Sudden (Uranus) Success (Jupiter).
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