Consumer Spending Expectations Down Again: Dear Fed, Why Don’t You Believe Your Own Survey?
|Fed Chair Janet Yellen keeps citing consumer confidence and jobs as reasons consumer spending and inflation will pick up.
Curiously, the New York Fed Survey on Consumer Spending Expectations keeps trending lower and lower, despite survey-high expectations for wage growth.
The report for July 2017 was released today. I downloaded the survey results and produced the following charts.
Household Spending Projections
Household Income Projections
Projection Comments
-
Income projections are volatile but at least they are trending higher across the board.
-
Spending projections are less volatile and trending lower at every level.
-
At the 25th percentile level, a group that no doubt spends every cent they make, spending expectations are zero. Those projections were in negative territory in April.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen does not believe the Fed’s own reports. Instead, she relies on consumer confidence numbers that tend to track the stock market or gasoline prices more than anything else.
Perhaps New York Fed President William Dudley does believe in the report.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.