Choppy trade into the end of the week
|Month/quarter end flow busy in GBP. Deutsche bank woes hit risk, but recovery into the weekend, with EUR recovering notable losses. US payrolls next week, as well as RBA, while PMIs should keep the market busy also.
Some notable moves in all major currency pairs, though not necessarily covering any major ground - the London fix for month and quarter end adding to some choppy trade. Deutsche bank has been in the limelight to spark off some uncomfortable bouts of risk aversion, with USD/JPY knocked back from the high 101.00’s after rejecting 100.00 earlier in the week. The return to this level has failed to materialise since, with Wall Street showing some much need calm, leading to stability in all the JPY crosses. AUD/USD was also showing strong intent on retesting .7700 again before the storm clouds emerged, but late in the day pair was back in the upper .7600’s after dipping into the .7500’s. Canadian GDP for Jul pleasantly surprised to the upside today, but despite higher WTI levels in the wake of the OPEC agreement to cut output, this was not enough to push USD/CAD back through 1.3000. After taking out the 1.3250 level recently, tech based players continue to eye 1.3300+ higher up. GBP has been a default sell in the absence of any notable data releases, but since coming back off recovery levels in both Cable and EUR/GBP, the Pound has weathered the storm well after continued bouts of selling significantly through Thursday and Friday. The final Q2 UK growth stats were revised slightly higher, but it was the better than expected business investment which has taken the sting out of the tail, though through Thursday and Friday this week, EUR/GBP has been extremely well bid to dictate much of the trade in the Cable rate. Nevertheless, the GBP spot rate has continued to fight the selling interest into the mid 1.2900’s, but the stalemate continues as the cross rate looks unrelenting on the upside. EUR/USD looks to have been largely dictated by cross rate flow as a result, with recent support coming through a variety of sources. EUR/CHF was ramped up away from the low 1.0800’s in what may perceive to have been officially led, though as ever, the SNB refused to confirm this. Late in the day however, the lead EUR rate shot back higher again under what seemed to be under its own steam, in line with a recovery in Deutsche bank shares, which are likely to dominate into next week. On the data side, US payrolls will be the primary focus, though the Tankan survey, the RBA rate call and a host of PMI numbers will also give the market plenty to consider.
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