Bosnia and Herzegovina: Political divisions in the spotlight again
|Real GDP growth in 2024 was rather stable across quarters, closely anchored around the final average figure of 2.5% y/y for the full year. Growth was underpinned from the domestic side. Looking ahead, we expect similar growth performance this year.
Inflation has been low and stable in 2024, averaging 1.7% y/y, while peaking at just 2.2% y/y in December. 1Q25 data reveals acceleration of inflation, as price growth average 3.3% y/y in the period. On average, food and non-alcoholic beverages have contributed around 50% of headline CPI in 2024, while its contribution in 1Q25 of almost 80% suggests renewed food price pressure in 2025.
Tough external environment weighed on trade balance figures, and consequently lead to widening of the C/A gap by 1.7pp of the GDP to 4% of GDP in 2024. We expect a similar gap this year, and roughly 0.5pp of GDP improvement in 2026 as external environment hopefully improves.
Highly divisive political setting will likely continue to undermine material reform implementation and progress on the EU accession front.
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