AUD/USD crossing above the 200-Day SMA
|Monthly uptrend?
From the monthly timeframe, the AUD/USD has been entrenched in a downtrend since 2011. However, downside momentum has evidently decelerated. The pullback from early 2020 (low of $0.5506) to the high of $0.8007 (February 2021) is deep—deeper than any previous pullback seen in the current downtrend, indicating possible strength on the side of long-term buyers. Maybe. I want to see the (tentative) higher low at $0.6458 hold and price form a higher high before pencilling in a possible uptrend. Until that time, long term, this market remains trending south.
Daily price north of 200-day SMA; H1 action to hold above $0.67?
Out of the daily timeframe, recent trading saw price cross above the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages at $0.6660 and $0.6689, respectively. Among technical analysts, some will consider this an early sign of strength to the upside; this also opens the door to resistance at $0.6785 and echoes a possible bullish breakout scenario. North of $0.6785 would be interesting and throw light on the possibility of a higher high forming on the monthly scale (noted above).
Over on the H1 timeframe, the currency pair recently made its way above the $0.67 figure. If price maintains its position north of the noted level, this could, as suggested by the bigger picture (daily timeframe above moving averages), see the pair approach at least resistance from $0.6743. Additionally, if a $0.67 retest emerges (specifically at the point where a nearby H1 trendline support merges with the round number) and holds the number, this would likely encourage buyers to commit.
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