Another Jump, Another Shot
|THE QUICK ONE - That was fast! Shortly after the daily technical update was sent out, Aussie employment data was released and the reaction opened another jump, this time up towards 0.8000. The Australian Dollar has been on fire these past several days and this has resulted in some highly extended technicals which have warranted the attempts to play this market to the short side. I was able to sell at 0.7980 on the jump after the jobs report and have since placed the stop loss at cost. The data wasn't all that bad, with the full time jobs component quite strong, though the drop in part time work had the headline number coming in a little softer. This actually worked to our advantage with the trade as there was enough good news to get a good entry but not enough good news to keep the rally going.
OTHER VARIABLES - I do believe there is a very nice reversal coming for Aussie, but I also don't want to be in this one if it breaks back up to 0.7980 again. At the time of this update, the trade is about 30 points in the money, far from where it needs to be to get going. I would say that if the trade is still open later today, we'd need to see a daily close below 0.7900 at a minimum to really encourage the prospect for the anticipated reversal. But remember, there are also broader, external themes at play that could easily propel Aussie higher today. Another run up in US equities or some more broad based US Dollar selling in the aftermath of a hawkish ECB decision could easily do the trick.
PSYCHOLOGY - I'd like to close out today's update with an idea that I think is very important when it comes to trying to get your head in the right place. As you all know, there are times we tell ourselves "if only I had X then Y would happen." The trouble with this line of thinking is that it will always let you down and will usually leave you feeling crappy about yourself. And so, my hope is that this little parting thought will resonate with you on some level and perhaps even help you get to a better place. So here it is: When you stop thinking you need more than you have, you start appreciating you have more than you need. The idea is not that you shouldn't want more for yourself, but that when you do want more, it's not because you don't appreciate what you already have.
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