American FX Outlook: Waiting for Godot, tax cut plan, and weekly jobs data
|What you need to know
• European stocks fell after a volatile session in Asian markets and German bund yields rose after the European Commission lifted growth forecasts. Markets also await details of the US fiscal reform while President Trump continues his visit to Asia.
• The UK Prime Minister Theresa May is losing credibility with two government ministers resigning in last two weeks.
• The RBNZ held policy rate steady but projected it to remain steady until Q1 2019 sending a hawkish signal as it previous projection showed stand still until Q3 2019.
Tuesday’s market moving events
• The US weekly jobless claims are expected to rise 232K for last week, up from 229K reported for the week ending October 28.
• Canada’s new home price index is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in September.
• According to the press reports the US Senate may release a “concept” of its own version of tax bill today with no specific details.
• Swiss SNB Governing Board chairman Thomas Jordan will deliver a speech titled “Independence of Central Banks after the Financial Crisis: The Swiss Perspective” at the Center for Financial Studies Presidential Lecture, in Frankfurt, Germany.
Major forex market movers
• Simultaneous release of tax reform bill from both House and Senate in the US should make it easier for markets to compare the changes.
• EUR/USD is expected to remain conditionally supported by the forecast of increased growth from European Commission.
Earlier in Europe/Asia
• China’s CPI rose 1.9% y/y in October while PPI rose 6.9% y/y, both inflation gauges exceeding the expectations.
• German trade balance is expected to reach a surplus of €21.1 billion in September.
• Business sentiment in both services and industrial sector in France increased by one point to 102 and 106 points, with the Bank of France now forecasting Q4 GDP at 0.5% q/q.
• German trade surplus reached €21.8 billion in September with exports falling -0.4% m/m and import down -1.0% m/m.
• ECB’s supervisory board chair Daniele Nouy said NPLs weigh on banks’ profits as the bank prepares draft addendum in line with the Council conclusions on NPLs which were adopted in June.
• Winter economic forecast of the European Commission raised the prediction of the economic growth for Eurozone to the highest level in 10 years while expecting the UK to heads into an extended slowdown.
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