American FX Outlook: US jobless claims and housing data headline

What you need to know before markets open

• The US Justice Department opened a criminal probe of traders manipulating the price of Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

• The risk is back on the markets with the US Dollar softer and the 

• The UK retail sales rose double the expectations in April boosting Sterling and hopes for the upward revision of the first quarter UK GDP due this Friday.

• The ECB meeting accounts are set to influence the mood on Euro.

• Fed speakers and weekly jobless claims data headline the US market session with speeches likely confirming the stance worded in FOMC minutes last night that saw policymakers willing to raise rates gradually continuing with June rate hike.

Thursday's upcoming market moving events

• ECB published its April meeting minutes at 11:30 GMT.

• The US initial jobless claims are seen rising 220K in the week ending May 18.

• The US existing home sales are expected to fall -0.2% m/m in April to 5.57 million.

• Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic is expected to give opening remarks at the "Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications for Business, Labor Markets and Monetary Policy Conference" in Dallas at 14:35 GMT.

• Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari is set to participate in a Q&A on New Energy Economic Reality in Bismarck, North Dakota at 18:00 GMT.

Major market themes

• Euro jumped 0.3% to 1.1730 against the US Dollar as risk-on sentiment is returning to the markets.

• Sterling jumped up 0.5% to 1.3420 area after the surprisingly strong UK retail sales data.

• The ECB meeting accounts are set to influence the mood on Euro.

• Fed speakers and weekly jobless claims data headline the US market session.  

Earlier in Asia/Europe

• German Gfk consumer confidence decelerated slightly to 10.7 in June.

• The first revision of German Q1 GDP saw the growth rates unchanged at 0.3% Q/Q and 2.3% y/y with investment and household consumption being the main drivers of growth while government spending dragged the growth down.

• The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the measures to improve financial conduct "are all very constructive but they are not yet sufficient" showing LIBOR as a prime example of critical hard market infrastructure that has not kept up with market developments while delivering opening remarks at the Market forum organized by the Bank of England in London.

• The outgoing New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley said “time is of the essence” in global transition from LIBOR to alternative reference rates. 

• ECB says financial stability conditions in Euro area remain favorable but risk-taking intensified. 

• The UK retail sales rose 1.6% m/m in April double the expectation while the core retail sales 1.2% m/m in April. 

• ECB chief economist Peter Praet delivering lunchtime keynote speech said that ECB waits to see the Italian government programme, noting that space to stimulate demand in Italy is difficult because of high debt.

• ECB's Vasiliauskas said he doesn't disagree with forecasts of ECB rate hike in six months