Analysis

American FX Outlook: US Dollar rocks with benchmark Treasury yields approaching 3%


What you need to know before markets open

  • The US benchmark Treasury yield jumped to 2.99% on Monday pushing the US Dollar higher across the board.
  • The Eurozone manufacturing PMI fell less than expected in April while services activity increased pushing the composite PMI to remain flat over the month in April and beating the market forecast of PMI sliding lower.
  • The US Treasuries are the main market topic on Monday leaving the US macro indicators in the second wave of interest including manufacturing activity gauge for Chicago Fed regional district that is expected to decelerate in March while the US existing home sales are seen rising.

Monday’s market moving events

  • Chicago Fed index is expected to fall to 0.41 in March from 0.88 in February.
  • Canada’s wholesale sales are seen rising 0.7% m/m in February.
  • The US existing home sales are expected to rise 1.3% m/m in March to 5.55 million.
  • The ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure is set to participate in a conference on 'Resolution in Europe: The Unresolved Questions' organized by Deutsche Bundesbank and the Institute for Law and Finance in Frankfurt at 14:00 GMT.

Major market movers

  • The US benchmark Treasury yield jumped to 2.99% on Monday pushing the US Dollar higher across the board with gains against major like EUR, JPY, AUD and NZD of about 0.5%, breaking important levels.
  • Should the US Treasuries yields close above important psychological 3.0% level, the US Dollar is seen gaining traction further.

Earlier in Asia/Europe

  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI is expected to decelerate to 52.6 in April.
  • German composite PMI surprised on the upside rising 0.2 points to 55.3 in April with manufacturing activity decelerated less than expected to 58.1 from 58.2 in March and services PMI increased to 54.1.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI also beat the expectation while remaining at the unchanged level from March at 55.2 in April following the manufacturing and services activity pattern in Germany.


 

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