All eyes on Jackson Hole
|Market movers ahead
- Next week in the US, we expect focus to be mainly on the annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, where Fed Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak.
- In US, we expect an upward correction in the PMI service index for August.
- We expect the consumer confidence figures for August in the euro area to be affected negatively by the rising oil price at the beginning of August and post-Brexit vote uncertainty, although this is diminishing. However, continued solid labour market conditions and resilient business sentiment are likely to pull consumer confidence upwards slightly.
- In Sweden, we expect the strong trend in employment to continue for a few months more, despite the deceleration in growth.
- In Norway, we expect focus to be on the oil investment survey, which we believe could paint a slightly less negative picture for the oil sector.
Global macro and market themes
- Risk sentiment has been supported by positive macro momentum, lower tail risks and monetary easing.
- We see more upside potential for now but, in our view, too high earnings expectations and a potential loss of macro momentum loom.
- Bonds are still supported by QE.
- We expect EUR/USD to be range bound in coming months before moving higher.
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