Analysis

A Slow Start to the Year

U.S. Review

A Slow Start to the Year

  • Consumer spending was soft again in February, rising just 0.1 percent for the month while personal income growth remained robust, rising 0.4 percent.
  • Consumer confidence data for the month of March continued to indicate that consumers are feeling more optimistic with the current and future economic environment.
  • Real GDP growth for Q4 was revised up slightly to 2.1 percent from 1.9 percent.
  • Inflation, as measured by the PCE Deflator, edged up to 2.1 percent on a year-over-year basis in February.

Global Review

Mexico’s Central Bank Raises Rates Again

  • Economic activity in Mexico accelerated in January, up 2.96 percent year over year, besting market expectations of slower growth. Mexico’s central bank increased its overnight bank rate to 6.50 percent at its most recent meeting.
  • Inflation in Japan rose for the second consecutive month and retail sales are seeing meager gains as stagnant wage growth and higher energy prices weigh on personal consumption.
  • As largely expected, Prime Minister May pulled the trigger on Article 50, starting the two-year legal process between the U.K. and the EU to sever its 44-year relationship. 

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