A sharp pullback in Gold and Silver

REVIEW

“The periods of decline from the crest of the 18-year cycle to its trough at the end, has ranged from 2 months (the 1987 case) to 8 years. Since the Great Depression of 1932, there have been no declines from crest to trough that have lasted more than two years. Even the 90% decline into the Great Depression low of 1932 lasted less than 3 years (two years, 8 months). Prior to that – prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve Board in late 1913 – all declines had lasted 4-8 years. Since the creation of the FRB, no declines have lasted that long. The creation of the Federal Reserve Board has been an exceptionally powerful force for the ongoing bull market in stocks, although there have been instances in which the stock market has declined sharply, but in relatively short periods….” Excerpt from the soon-to-be-released third edition of The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing Volume 1: Cycles and Patterns in the Indexes, by Raymond Merriman, Seek-It Publications, W. Bloomfield, MI, June 2017.

It was a very peculiar week, typical of Neptune turning retrograde on June 16, following the Sun/Saturn opposition on June 15, and with each planet in fickle mutable signs (Gemini, Sagittarius, and Pisces). That is, some world stock indices (DJIA, DAX) made new all-time highs into June 15 +/- 1 trading day, and others made new multi-month lows. Some equity markets were hot, and some were cold, creating multiple cases of intermarket bearish divergence throughout the world in a time period leading up to the very important Sun/Mars conjunction of July 26. As stated before, this Sun/Mars conjunction is a powerful geocosmic signature that has a high probability of beginning or ending a double digit decline in equity markets when they come within 12 degrees (and usually 8 degrees or less) of one another, which measures out to an orb of 6 weeks either side of its occurrence. We are entering that time band now.

However, what makes last week’s market behavior so peculiar (Neptune) is that the USA stock markets – and especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average – have been making new all-time highs as the Federal Reserve Board announced another rate hike on Wednesday, June 14. Not only did the stock market rally into that expected announcement, but so did treasuries. Rate hikes are supposed to cause treasury prices to decline, and in reaction to higher rates, equity levels also usually decline. But not this time. Not with Neptune highlighted by going stationary direct, forming a T-square to the Federal Reserve Board’s natal Mercury/Saturn opposition. Mercury pertain to communication – or “messaging” – and somehow the Fed has convinced investors that rising rates are a positive for the future of the economy. Really?

I think Neptune (the Fed) may not be telling the full story. Yet, as my studies on long-term stock markets indicate, no one can truly dispute that the Fed has had a positive influence on U.S. stocks over the last 100 years, notwithstanding a couple of serious declines of 40% or more that were corrected in less than three years. Prior to that, it would take 4-8 years for a bear market in U.S. stocks to end.

The FED has done its job well of supporting the U.S. economy for over 100 years. It’s just that it may not be so clear these days on exactly what its job is, or what it will become, as “The Great Reset of 2017-2020” gets underway. The “Reset” may very well involve an audit and a transformation of the Fed, as we have known it, once Saturn moves into Capricorn (with the Sun), on the 2017 winter solstice.

Last week also witnessed a re-test of the low for this year in crude oil, and a sharp pullback in Gold and Silver. However, the decline in Gold and Silver is very much according to our forecasts presented in the June 3 webinar. Their highs – and that of some major currencies and several other world equity indices like the Japanese Nikkei and London FTSE – remain in effect since our June 2 three-star geocosmic critical reversal date (CRD), +/- 3 trading days. In other words, geocosmic signatures as a powerful market timing tool continues to work just fine.

 

SHORT-TERM GEOCOSMICS AND LONGER-TERM THOUGHTS

“… a lot of our disagreements (between my liberal friends and me) is about the suitability and functionality of government. They believe that government is the answer, while I believe government is the source of the problem in many cases. Government planning falls short, most of the time, because of the law of unintended consequences. Our economic system is so complex that the model almost never corresponds with reality …. History is clear. Capitalist nations have to "build walls" physical or legal, to keep people out, while communist countries must do the same to keep people in. What else do you have to know?” – a friend, who also writes a letter about what is happening on the world stage, but wishes to remain anonymous.

There are no major geocosmic signature unfolding this week, at least not until the next cluster begins on Saturday, June 24. This usually means stock markets will be mostly one-directional with no major reversals. However, June 20 is the summer solstice when the Sun enters the sign of Cancer. The next day, Mercury does the same, joining Mars, who entered Cancer the prior week, on June 4. All that patriotic, family-oriented, emotionally-driven, loyalty-demanding sign of Cancer! One wonders what will happen now that the illusionary/delusionary/irrational influence of Neptune (and its cosmic cousin Jupiter, the two weeks before that) ends? We may have enjoyed the euphoria of stock indices marking new highs during this period (June 2-16), but can they sustain their upward momentum with all this Cancer energy from the cosmos over the next several weeks? There is reason to be concerned, for Cancer has an innate sense of wanting to be safe, protected, and hence locking in profits, due to fear of something getting out of control.

In recent columns, I discussed the political risk to the market. The USA is a Cancer nation, so conditions in America are apt to move markets during this time. There is much talk that the Republican White House and Congress need to get some legislation passed soon, or they will lose what little support they have left from the public. There is an opportunity to do that now as transiting Jupiter (good fortune, or at least hope and optimism of success) has turned direct as of June 9, and is transiting the USA natal Saturn (laws and legislation) through mid-July. If the GOP is to succeed, it will need to accomplish something in these next four weeks, or it could very well be downhill, from there into not just the mid-term elections of 2018, but all the way through the general election of 2020. The thing to understand about Jupiter is that it doesn’t guarantee success. It just guarantees optimism and confidence that one’s efforts will succeed. But oftentimes this is a false sense confidence based upon thin air - an exaggeration substituting for reality. You can’t just talk a good game and expect others to fall in line. You have to actually lead and make things happen. This is the perfect time for Republicans to get something done. It is also then perfect time for Democrats to dash those hopes via resistance to any change imitated by the GOP. If the Republicans succeed these next four weeks in passing some legislation, the future will look promising. If the Democrats succeed in preventing any legislation getting through, the next elections will look very good for them.

It is all progressing to the competitive Sun/Mars conjunction in Leo on July 26, followed by the solar eclipse conjunct Mars (and Donald Trump’s natal Mars/Ascendant) on August 21. Someone is going to be very upset, and the markets will respond accordingly, which is why the greatest risk to the U.S. stock market this summer is the political one. It will follow – respond to – the path of success or failure of Donald Trump and the GOP. If they succeed in passing important economic legislation (like tax reform), the stock markets will soar. If the Democrats succeed in preventing that, the markets will more than likely have a swoon dance that could last into August-October, repeating the history (and probabilities) of the Sun/Mars conjunction its correlation to the performance of the stock market.