FXSTREET TRADING


We Really Trade.

If you want to learn how to trade, improve your trading, or just follow us in the markets, you are in the right place. Here you can find trade ideas, and those trade decisions explained, for all levels, from beginner to advanced. The track record is based on real trading, with an accumulated sum of +20.000 pips, with a frequency of aprox. 2 trades per day since March 2015.


Latest Trades and Performance

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THIS MONTH: 1445 PIPS

THIS WEEK: 348 PIPS

Tradelog


  • "The economic data today is relatively quiet as far as data from the eurozone is concerned, which will leave most of the heavy-lifting to the U.S. revised GDP numbers." - John Benjamin [Updated 26/05 09:48 CET];
  • "Lack of economic indicators from the Eurozone today suggests that the pair will be depending on US data and technicals."- Slobodan Drvenica [Updated 25/05 10:30 CET];
  • "We continue to look for a lower EUR/USD to 1.1119. How this achieves is by breaks at 1.1147, 1.1133, 1.1125 then 1.1119." by Brian Twomey [Updated 24/05 15:08 CET];
  • Still net short 3k with a mid-term bullish view. looking to load more longs at the weekly pivot around 1.1120 [Updated 24/05 11:13 CET];
  • Closing the week adopting a more hedged exposure, 2k net short now [Updated 19/05 15:30 CET];
  • We still mantain our net short position from last week while enduring the drawdown. Attention will be put to any sign of shrt-term reversal in the EUR/USD to liquidade longs in profit, just to reload at lower levers aiming at 1.1400 in coming weeks [Updated 17/05 11:04 CET];

 

    EUR-pairs % Chart

    Key Dates

    February 22-April 21 time band significant gathering of geocosmic signatures this year;

    March 2, was the granddaddy of all geocosmic signatures related to the culmination of primary or greater cycles unfolds;

    April 8, key geocosmic period. (TradingDaze)

    April 14, projected low for S&P (Bill Meridian)

    April 25, projected low for S&P (Norm Winski)

     


    Themes afecting the EUR/USD

    These themes are taken from the Advisory Opinon Aggregator.  At FXStreet, we read all the material published at our site and pick the key bearish and a bullish arguments expressed by our dedicated contributors on several asset classes.

    I use these themes as a guide for my lon-term positioning and control of exposure. I'm currently biased towards a bearish development in the EUR/USD based on the below arguments.

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    Bearish Themes for the USD

    Inflation in the Eurozone hitting 2%- by Hussein Sayed

    Regulatory changes in U.S. money market, by Axel Merk

    The stall in US interest rates- by Boris Schlossberg

    Globalization has driven countries to desire a weaker currency, including the USA, by Alan Hill

    OECD models see the euro at nearly 25% undervalued, by Marc Chandler

    A depreciation of the dollar would reduce pressures on countries with fixed exchange rates and external debt- ny Northern Trust Economic Research Dep.

    China threats to sell U.S. Treasuries, by Kathy Lien, Barbara Rockefeller

    Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal stimulus and investment infrastructure failing to keep up with market expectations- by Lukman Otunuga, by KBC Market Research Desk

    Dollar strength could become a threat to US competitiveness- by Kathleen Brooks

    The US dollar is vulnerable to a trade war with China, by Barbara Rockefeller

    USD strengthening tends to be up to and at the beginning of a hiking cycle, thereafter a correction- by Danske Research Team

    The dollar is ready to begin its 15 year super cycle decline, by LikesMoney

    Interest rates in part of the rest of the world may have reached their lows- by Axel Merk

    Bullish Themes for the USD

    A viable and compelling alternative to the USD does not exist today- by Marc Chandler

    Trump administration's verbal intervention to weaken the USD can backfire- by Joel Kruger, Kathleen Brooks

    The border tax adjustment is seen by many as automatically spurring a significant dollar appreciation- by Marc Chandler

    Repatriation would be an overall supportive factor, however modest, for the US dollar- by Wells Fargo Research Team, AceTrader Team, by Raoul Pal

    Divergence of monetary policy may continue to widen- by Hussein Al Sayed, Marc Chandler

    Relative health of the financial/banking system in the US, 

    Uncertainty surrounding this year's elections in Europe

    Euro’s existence could be threatened by default scares in Italy and the failure of Deutsche Bank- by Harry S. Dent

    Capital outflows from the eurozone are the biggest so far this year than any other time in 14 years- by Barbara Rockefeller

    There is a shortage of offshore dollar funding -the Eurodollar maket- by Raoul Pal

    US dollar index is still developing a long-term impulsive wave - by David Solin

    Bearish Themes for the EURO

    Core inflation is it will be 0.9% on average this year and only go slightly above 1.0% at the very end of the year- by Danske Research Team

    Lautensclaeger, a hawk, [...] is a loner inside the dovish Executive Committee, by KBC Market Research Desk

    Le Pen is likely to keep upward pressure on French bond yields, and this political risk premium could weigh further on the euro- by Kathleen Brooks

    Greece's debt crisis returning with a vengeance could encourage bearish traders to attack the EURUSD incessantly- by Lukman Otunuga, David Johnson

    Geert Wilders, candidate in the Dutch election stated his intention, if elected, to take the Dutch out of the EU- by Alan Hill

    ECB extending its QE programme and presenting a dovish tone at their December meeting- By Jarratt Davis

    Bullish Themes for the EURO

    Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy should not diverge so noticeably- by Jasper Lawler, Barbara Rockefeller

    Draghi acknowledged that deflation forces were almost vanquished- by Marc Chandler

    The Eurozone is hardly sclerotic—it's getting the same boost the US got from QE- by Barbara Rockefeller 

    If traders think that a taper is due and needed, then the euro will benefit- by Chuck Butler

    Bank's clients may well decide to no longer seek a U.S. dollar loan, but instead a euro-denominated loan, or a loan denominated in their home country's currency- by Axel Merk

    MY TOOL KIT

    The below Toolkit is a selection of dedicated pages for all sorts of topics related to FX trading.

    SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

    Support and Resistance is important for my strategy. Therefore I start the day looking at the confluences between pivot points, Fibonacci extensions and retracements, S&R lines and channels.

    USD INDEX

    You know, FX trading is mostly about the U.S. dollar. If the dollar is shaking the market, then I have this dedicated page only for USD INDEX related info.

    COMMODITIES

    For commodity currencies such as the AUD, CAD and NZD, I use the commodities page where several charts and news headlines give me a feel if something is happening on this front.

    ELLIOTTWAVE

    An excellent technique to combine with S&R is wave analysis. Although I had to learn all the rules and guidelines for my CMT designation, sincerely, I prefer other more experienced elliotticians do the chart work.

    EQUITIES

    To make the intermarket picture less complex, FXStreet has compiled a separate source for global stock markets. Correlations to the FX world exist.

    CYCLE ANALYSIS

    For longer-term trading considerations, such as exposure, big trends and key volatility periods and potential dates for market turns, FXStreet works with great cycle analysts providing the missing timing element.

    CORRELATIONS

    Since I trade several currency pairs, I need to have a big picture view of what's happening across several markets. A good starting point is to look at correlations and currency strength against the USD.

    BONDS

    For FX traders, a view of the capital markets is key. Interest rates, and government bonds are the source of many trends in the Forex market.

    ADVISORY OPINION

    How do I know what is likely to drive markets up or down? This advisory opinin aggregator organizes all the tradable ideas and macro triggers into bullish and bearish categories, for several markets.


    Performance Statistics (Corporate Account)

    Since inception - January 2017 (updated EOM):

     

    Equity Growth: 0.26%

    Balance Growth: 3.3%

    Total pips: 4,011

    Drawdown: -2.95%

    Avg pips/day: 57

     

    Trades/day: 2.5

    Win rate: 97%

    Avg win: 20 pips

    Avg loss: 11 pips

     

     

    Updated 28th Apr. 2017

     

    Performance Statistics (Personal Account)

    Since inception - March 2015 (updated EOM):

     

    Equity growth: 20.5%

    Balance growth: 74,6%

    Total pips: 20,900

    Drawdown: -31%

    Avg pips/day: 49

     

    Trades/day: 2.1

    Win rate: 94.5%

    Avg win: 42 pips

    Avg loss: 310 pips

     

     

    Updated 28th Apr. 2017

     


    FAQ

    How is it possible to make money with a risk to reward ratio of 50:1 or worse?
    Let me answer with another question: How many times did you got stoped out before the trade resumed in your initial direction? Stop orders are a source of liquidity and markets will move partly because of them. In some cases substantial moves can derive from stop clusters being devoured. This is one of the reasons I opt to close profits fast and let losers run.


    How do you manage your trades without a stop loss order?
    95% of the trades close in profit, so I have to manage the losses caused by 5% of the trades. These losing trades are not managed individually but as a whole. I do that by increasing and decreasing the exposure on the long and short legs.


    Why do you sustain a permanent drawdown?
    This is because I use a different definition of a drawdown. For me it's not a series of losses which demand to be recovered. I see the drawdown as an implicit cost of the business, together with explicit costs such as swaps and spreads. If you have made a 100% return on your balance, a 50% drawdown means your equity is up by 50%. In other words, if you close all trades at that moment your return is still 50%.


    I’d like to know more about your hedging strategy.  How does it work?
    The hedging is treated like a sub-strategy. It enables me to remain tail risk positive, safeguarding the account's performance in exceptional circumstances, like for instance during an election period. The hedging is never 100%, usually I have a bias and will increase exposure in one of the legs. I the Premium webinars I explain the technique in more detail.


    Do you use leverage?
    Yes, I make use of leverage but each trade is very small compared to the account's size. Keeping the position size small enables be to construct a larger position with many trades at different prices. In exceptional circumstances I may increase the exposure in one direction, profiting from leverage, but keeping always some available margin to profit from the coast line of exchange fluctuations.

    The Trader


    Before starting to work at FXStreet.com in 2008, I was already following the site. Almost everything I learned about trading was through FXStreet. I've learned from many of its dedicated contributors and was particularly inspired by a few of them. What you see in this page is the result of all these years of experience and learning.

    I've become a product of FXStreet. A profitable one..


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