FXSTREET TRADING


We Really Trade.

If you want to learn how to trade, improve your trading, or just follow us in the markets, you are in the right place. Here you can find trade ideas, and those trade decisions explained, for all levels, from beginner to advanced. The track record is based on real trading, with an accumulated sum of +19.000 pips, with a frequency of aprox. 2 trades per day since March 2015.


Latest Trades and Performance

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THIS MONTH: 755 PIPS

THIS WEEK: 359 PIPS

Tradelog

 

  • Still sligthly long, but will hedge 100% towards the weekend [Updated 04/21 10:08 CET];
  • Limit sell orders in EUR/USD from ytd cancelled- will reconcider price level to sell [Updated 04/20 10:12 CET];
  • USD/SEK still eyes 8.90 which means the EUR/USD can still push higher towards the pivot's R1 at 1.076 [Updated 04/19 10:08 CET];
  • Line in the sand now is 1.07/0750 which is formed by historical lows at 0.8 and thereabouts. While I still see risk to the downside until July, I'm eager to increase longs a bit during this impulsive upthrust from last weeks low [Updated 04/11 17:13 CET];

    Key Levels

    Key Dates

    February 22-April 21 time band significant gathering of geocosmic signatures this year;

    March 2, was the granddaddy of all geocosmic signatures related to the culmination of primary or greater cycles unfolds;

    April 8, key geocosmic period. (TradingDaze)

    April 14, projected low for S&P (Bill Meridian)

    April 25, projected low for S&P (Norm Winski)

     


    Themes afecting the EUR/USD

    These themes are taken from the Advisory Opinon Aggregator.  At FXStreet, we read all the material published at our site and pick the key bearish and a bullish arguments expressed by our dedicated contributors on several asset classes.

    I use these themes as a guide for my lon-term positioning and control of exposure. I'm currently biased towards a bearish development in the EUR/USD based on the below arguments.

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    Bearish Themes for the USD

    Inflation in the Eurozone hitting 2%- by Hussein Sayed

    Regulatory changes in U.S. money market, by Axel Merk

    The stall in US interest rates- by Boris Schlossberg

    Globalization has driven countries to desire a weaker currency, including the USA, by Alan Hill

    OECD models see the euro at nearly 25% undervalued, by Marc Chandler

    A depreciation of the dollar would reduce pressures on countries with fixed exchange rates and external debt- ny Northern Trust Economic Research Dep.

    China threats to sell U.S. Treasuries, by Kathy Lien, Barbara Rockefeller

    Donald Trump’s proposed fiscal stimulus and investment infrastructure failing to keep up with market expectations- by Lukman Otunuga, by KBC Market Research Desk

    Dollar strength could become a threat to US competitiveness- by Kathleen Brooks

    The US dollar is vulnerable to a trade war with China, by Barbara Rockefeller

    USD strengthening tends to be up to and at the beginning of a hiking cycle, thereafter a correction- by Danske Research Team

    The dollar is ready to begin its 15 year super cycle decline, by LikesMoney

    Interest rates in part of the rest of the world may have reached their lows- by Axel Merk

    Bullish Themes for the USD

    A viable and compelling alternative to the USD does not exist today- by Marc Chandler

    Trump administration's verbal intervention to weaken the USD can backfire- by Joel Kruger, Kathleen Brooks

    The border tax adjustment is seen by many as automatically spurring a significant dollar appreciation- by Marc Chandler

    Repatriation would be an overall supportive factor, however modest, for the US dollar- by Wells Fargo Research Team, AceTrader Team, by Raoul Pal

    Divergence of monetary policy may continue to widen- by Hussein Al Sayed, Marc Chandler

    Relative health of the financial/banking system in the US, 

    Uncertainty surrounding this year's elections in Europe

    Euro’s existence could be threatened by default scares in Italy and the failure of Deutsche Bank- by Harry S. Dent

    Capital outflows from the eurozone are the biggest so far this year than any other time in 14 years- by Barbara Rockefeller

    There is a shortage of offshore dollar funding -the Eurodollar maket- by Raoul Pal

    US dollar index is still developing a long-term impulsive wave - by David Solin

    Bearish Themes for the EURO

    Core inflation is it will be 0.9% on average this year and only go slightly above 1.0% at the very end of the year- by Danske Research Team

    Lautensclaeger, a hawk, [...] is a loner inside the dovish Executive Committee, by KBC Market Research Desk

    Le Pen is likely to keep upward pressure on French bond yields, and this political risk premium could weigh further on the euro- by Kathleen Brooks

    Greece's debt crisis returning with a vengeance could encourage bearish traders to attack the EURUSD incessantly- by Lukman Otunuga, David Johnson

    Geert Wilders, candidate in the Dutch election stated his intention, if elected, to take the Dutch out of the EU- by Alan Hill

    ECB extending its QE programme and presenting a dovish tone at their December meeting- By Jarratt Davis

    Bullish Themes for the EURO

    Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy should not diverge so noticeably- by Jasper Lawler, Barbara Rockefeller

    Draghi acknowledged that deflation forces were almost vanquished- by Marc Chandler

    The Eurozone is hardly sclerotic—it's getting the same boost the US got from QE- by Barbara Rockefeller 

    If traders think that a taper is due and needed, then the euro will benefit- by Chuck Butler

    Bank's clients may well decide to no longer seek a U.S. dollar loan, but instead a euro-denominated loan, or a loan denominated in their home country's currency- by Axel Merk

    MY TOOL KIT

    The below Toolkit is a selection of dedicated pages for all sorts of topics related to FX trading.

    SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

    Support and Resistance is important for my strategy. Therefore I start the day looking at the confluences between pivot points, Fibonacci extensions and retracements, S&R lines and channels.

    USD INDEX

    You know, FX trading is mostly about the U.S. dollar. If the dollar is shaking the market, then I have this dedicated page only for USD INDEX related info.

    COMMODITIES

    For commodity currencies such as the AUD, CAD and NZD, I use the commodities page where several charts and news headlines give me a feel if something is happening on this front.

    ELLIOTTWAVE

    An excellent technique to combine with S&R is wave analysis. Although I had to learn all the rules and guidelines for my CMT designation, sincerely, I prefer other more experienced elliotticians do the chart work.

    EQUITIES

    To make the intermarket picture less complex, FXStreet has compiled a separate source for global stock markets. Correlations to the FX world exist.

    CYCLE ANALYSIS

    For longer-term trading considerations, such as exposure, big trends and key volatility periods and potential dates for market turns, FXStreet works with great cycle analysts providing the missing timing element.

    CORRELATIONS

    Since I trade several currency pairs, I need to have a big picture view of what's happening across several markets. A good starting point is to look at correlations and currency strength against the USD.

    BONDS

    For FX traders, a view of the capital markets is key. Interest rates, and government bonds are the source of many trends in the Forex market.

    ADVISORY OPINION

    How do I know what is likely to drive markets up or down? This advisory opinin aggregator organizes all the tradable ideas and macro triggers into bullish and bearish categories, for several markets.


    Performance Statistics (Corporate Account)

    Since inception - january 2017 (updated EOM):

     

    Equity Growth: 0.6%

    Total pips: 2,524

    Drawdown: -1.59%

    Avg pips/day: 50

     

    Trades/day: 2.5

    Win rate: 97%

    Avg win: 20 pips

    Avg loss: 11 pips

     

     

    Updated 31st Mar. 2017

     

    Performance Statistics (Personal Account)

    Since inception - March 2015(updated EOM):

     

    Growth: 20.5%

    Total pips: 19,617

    Drawdown: -28.5%

    Avg pips/day: 49

     

    Trades/day: 2.1

    Win rate: 94.5%

    Avg win: 42 pips

    Avg loss: 310 pips

     

     

    Updated 31st Mar. 2017

     


    The Method Explained

    The trading methodology is technical discretionary with strong enphasis on risk management: control of used and available margin, effective leverage, and position sizing. It is meant to capture the most amount of pips from the constant intraday price oscillations in the EUR/USD while keeping the floating draw down at bay. There is no use of stop loss orders for each trade, instead, the risk is managed as a whole, for the entire position.

    To learn more about the method, you can watch the below webinars:

    The Trader


    Before starting to work at FXStreet.com in 2008, I was already following the site. Almost everything I learned about trading was through FXStreet. I've learned from many of its dedicated contributors and was particularly inspired by a few of them. What you see in this page is the result of all these years of experience and learning.

    I've become a product of FXStreet. A profitable one..



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