WTI retreats towards $81.00 as hawkish central banks, recession woes battle OPEC+ chatters

• WTI pares the first weekly gains in five as traders await more clues.
• Supply crunch fears from Russia, chatters over OPEC+ output cut favor buyers.
• Concerns surrounding economic slowdown, aggressive rate hikes challenge upside momentum.
• Risk catalysts are the key, China PMIs, US inflation may also entertain oil traders.

WTI crude oil prices remain pressured towards $81.00 after retreating from the weekly top surrounding $82.50 the previous day. In doing so, the black gold portrays the oil market’s indecision amid mixed clues while bracing for the first positive week in five.

Among the key catalysts, recession woes and supply crunch fears gained major attention while the US dollar weakness may have been ignored as traders brace for the key catalysts.

That said, Reuters quotes anonymous sources to report that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have started to discuss a potential output cut for the next meeting. Also likely to have favored the oil buyers could be Russia’s readiness to annex more parts of Ukraine.

On the other hand, recession woes amplified as the majority of the central banks remain aggressive despite the recently downbeat economics and supply crunch fears. Additionally, the chatters over China’s inability to tame recession woes and the UK’s fears of more economic pain due to the latest fiscal policies appear negative for the energy benchmark.

That said, the commodity traders are in dilemma and hence will pay close attention to the upcoming activity data for September from the world’s largest commodity user China. Following that, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, expected 4.7% YoY versus 4.6% prior, will be important for fresh directions.

Also read: US August PCE Inflation Preview: Will it trigger a dollar correction?

Above all, risk catalysts and central bankers’ comments could direct the quote, mostly towards the south, amid a likely volatile Friday.

Technical analysis

WTI crude oil’s failure to cross the monthly resistance line, around $81.80 by the press time, joins challenges fundamental challenges to the price to tease sellers.