• WTI has fallen slightly into the $103.00s in quite pre-long weekend trade.
  • For now, WTI above $100 seems to make sense given expectations of tight global market conditions amid Russia supply outages.

Trading conditions have been fairly thin in global oil markets on Thursday amid a slowdown in relevant newsflow and as traders wind down ahead of a long weekend in major North American and European markets. Front-month WTI futures have dipped a tad to trade in the $103.00s, a little below Wednesday’s peaks for the week in the $104.00s.

For now, the 21-Day Moving Average at $104.15 is acting as a ceiling to the price action and this is likely to remain the case for the remainder of the week. For now, traders seem to view crude oil slightly above the $100 level as broadly making sense. Market conditions are expected to remain tight over the coming months as global oil markets adjust to significant disruption to Russian exports as a result of sanctions over the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) earlier in the week forecast a loss of 3M barrels of Russian crude oil per day from May (roughly 3% of global supply) as a result of sanctions and buyers voluntarily shunning Russian crude oil grades. This is the major reason why dips back into the $90s per barrel in WTI continue to be bought.

However, the outlook for a return to last month’s peaks in the $120s has been dampened by recent announcements by IEA members nations of a historic crude oil reserve release amounting to 240M barrels over the next six months. Other factors to consider are the potential for a return to the market of more than 1M barrels per day (BPD) in Iranian supply if the US and Iran can hash out a new nuclear pact to ease sanctions.

For now, though, talks remain deadlocked, with traders also monitoring the prospect for increased output from the US, Venezuela and OPEC+ nations, who for now are sticking to their policy of 400K BPD/month output quota hikes. Other factors on oil traders radars include the demand side as global growth slows and the threat of wider lockdowns in China remaining ever-present.

WTI US Oil

Overview
Today last price 103.01
Today Daily Change -0.73
Today Daily Change % -0.70
Today daily open 103.74
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 103.28
Daily SMA50 99.66
Daily SMA100 88.2
Daily SMA200 81.09
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 104.02
Previous Daily Low 99.5
Previous Weekly High 104.6
Previous Weekly Low 93.36
Previous Monthly High 126.51
Previous Monthly Low 92.37
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 102.29
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 101.23
Daily Pivot Point S1 100.82
Daily Pivot Point S2 97.9
Daily Pivot Point S3 96.3
Daily Pivot Point R1 105.34
Daily Pivot Point R2 106.94
Daily Pivot Point R3 109.85

 

 

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