When is the German IFO survey and how it could affect EUR/USD?


The German IFO Business Survey Overview

The German IFO survey for August is lined up for release later today at 0800 GMT. The headline IFO Business Climate Index is expected to drop to 95.1 versus 95.7 previous.

The Current Assessment sub-index is seen weaker at 98.6 this month, while the IFO Expectations Index – indicating firms’ projections for the next six months – is likely to arrive at 91.5 in the reported month vs. 92.2 last.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 3 and 40 pips in deviations up to 2.4 to -3.2, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 60 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

The spot looks to extend the latest leg down below the 1.1100 psychological level on downbeat IFO indicators while the EUR/USD pair could retest the 1.1150 immediate upside barrier on a positive surprise. However, the prices will remain at the mercy of the USD dynamics amid US-China trade-related developments.

According to Haresh Menghani, Analyst at FXStreet, “From a technical perspective, the pair on Friday confirmed a near-term bullish breakthrough a short-term trading range, though the positive momentum faltered near 200-period EMA on the 4-hourly chart. The mentioned handle, around the 1.1165 region, might now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders, above which the pair is likely to extend the momentum further towards reclaiming the 1.1200 round figure en-route the next major hurdle near 100-day EMA - around the 1.1215-20 region.”

“On the flip side, the mentioned trading range resistance breakpoint - around the 1.1115 region - now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the pair might slide back below the 1.1100 handle and retest the 1.1075 horizontal support. The pair could then slide further towards challenging the key 1.10 psychological mark in the near-term with some intermediate support near yearly lows - around the 1.1025 zone,” Haresh adds.

Key Notes

German IFO and US Durable Goods among major market movers - Danske Bank

EUR Futures: scope for extra gains

US Pres. Trump: China called US, they want to come back to negotiating table - Risk rebounds

About the German IFO Business Climate

This German business sentiment index released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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