When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUD/USD?


February month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders. The figures become all the more important as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently conveyed its bearish bias on the jobs figures and the Aussie bulls are currently cheering the Fed’s dovish halt.

Market consensus favors Employment Change to increase marginally to 30.0K from 29.1.0K on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely to ease from 6.4% to 6.3%. Further, the Participation Rate may rise from 66.1% to 66.2%.

TD Securities expect a mixed data while saying,

We are forecasting headline employment to fall by 31k (market forecast: +30k) in Feb, ending 4 consecutive months of employment gains. Our Feb NSA model forecast stands at +170k but after adjusting for seasonals by the same magnitude for Jan'21 over Jan'20, we obtain a -31k SA headline print. Assuming participation rate stays unchanged at 66.1% in Feb, this translates to an uptick in the unemployment rate to 6.6% from 6.4% previously.

Additionally, analysts at Westpac said,

The labor market has had a sharp V-shaped recovery, much stronger than anticipated. However, the state data reveals the impact of further lockdowns, and reopenings, with employment surging in Victoria while it stalled in NSW. In addition, the recovery has been dominated by male part-time employment. Our forecast (also consensus) is for +30k on employment (based on a NSW bounce and a softer Victoria) with a 0.1ppt rise in participation, producing a 0.1ppt fall in unemployment to 6.3%.

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

Given the AUD/USD pair’s latest run-up relying mostly on the Fed’s failure to offer any near-term rate hike signals, coupled with the RBA’s fears of sluggish employment, any disappointment can quickly trim the recent gains. However, the bears aren’t likely to turn hopeful as the RBA has already anticipated and acted over this negative surprise if any.

Technically, A sustained break of a two-week-old falling trend line and 21-day SMA, respectively around 0.7790 and 0.7780, keeps AUD/USD buyers hopeful to refresh the monthly high above 0.7838 currently.

Key Notes

Australian Employment Preview: Moving into the right direction but at a slow pace 

AUD/USD Forecast: Bulls becoming bold post-Powell 

AUD/USD: Holds Fed-led rally around 0.7800 with eyes on Australia employment

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Get Weekly Crypto trade ideas!  
Empower yourself with the best market insights

Join FXStreet Premium!    

Latest Forex News


Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD slips below 1.2050 amid dollar strength

EUR/USD is trading below 1.2050, losing some of its gains as the dollar shrugs off the fresh drop in yields and rises. European regulators said the benefits of J&J's vaccine outweigh the risks.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats from 1.40 despite upbeat UK job figures

GBP/USD is extending its falls after retreating from 1.40 as the dollar edges higher. Earlier, the UK reported a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9%, better than expected. The Claimant Count Change also beat estimates with 10.1K. 

GBP/USD News

XAU/USD tests key Fibo resistance at $1,775

XAU/USD rebounds after closing in the negative territory on Monday. 10-year US Treasury bond yield is edging lower on Tuesday. Additional gains are likely if gold manages to clear $1,775 resistance.

Gold News

Ethereum price on cusp of massive breakout if key level holds

Ethereum price had a significant 23% correction in the past week but holds above a key support level on the 12-hour chart. The digital asset still has robust on-chain metrics supporting it and aims for a rebound.

Read more

S&P 500 (SPX) Update: Equity markets take a well deserved breather, crypto stocks slide

Equity markets took a much-needed break from setting record highs on Monday. Tesla suffered a steep 5% fall after reports of a crash with no one at the wheel. Have a Coke and a smile was up 1% as KO smashed earnings estimates.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures