Australia’s labour force survey for September is coming up at the top of the hour. It is expected to report the loss of 200k jobs in the month, but this decline will only lead to a small rise in the Unemployment Rate to 4.7% as many of those out of work leave the workforce temporarily owing to lockdown restrictions, analysts at Westpac argued.
''Westpac is more gloomy than consensus on jobs, with the median forecast -110k total employment, 4.8% unemployment rate (versus August -146k and 4.5%).''
''We expect employment will have fallen -120k in August, which is slightly below consensus. But we expect the unemployment rate will only rise to 4.7%,'' analysts at ANZ Bank said.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
On an hourly basis, the price is meeting a meanwhile resistance and following the rally, a correction would be expected. The impulse is already decelerating and a negative outcome in the data would be expected to trigger the downside towards a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near 0.7360. On the other hand, should the price rally on the data, then the daily resistance and 0.74 the figure will be eyed:
- Australian Employment Preview: Significant fall in jobs already priced-in? AUD has room to rise
- Forex Today: Falling yields spur a dollar sell-off
- AUD/USD retains second place on the leader board ahead of key jobs data
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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