Early Tuesday morning in Asia, at 00:30 GMT, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of the latest monetary policy meeting held in March.
The Australian central bank teased policy doves by announcing a softer rate hike of 0.25% in its latest meeting, which in turn raised expectations that the pivot is in play. The same could be confirmed from the latest comments of the RBA officials and make it important for the policy hawks to step back.
As a result, today’s RBA Minutes will be closely observed for the details on the latest decision which raised bearish bets on the AUD/USD as it rises of late. Also important inside the Minutes statement, especially for the AUD/USD pair traders, will be the economic outlook and the central bankers’ optimism towards overcoming the recession fears amid the banking sector fallouts.
How could the minutes affect AUD/USD?
AUD/USD portrays the market’s pre-event anxiety as it makes rounds to 0.6715-20 after rising in the last three consecutive days. The Aussie pair previously cheered the market’s easing fears of the banking sector collapse, as well as the cautious optimism showed by Christopher Kent, Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Assistant Governor (Financial Markets).
That said, the Aussie pair’s further upside hinges on how the RBA Minutes manage to keep the bulls happy even after promoting the ability to announce further rate hikes. That being said, talks over the economic transition and neutral rate, as well as surrounding employment conditions, will also be crucial to watch for short-term AUD/USD forecast.
Technically, clear upside break of the six-week-old descending resistance line, now immediate support around 0.6635, directs AUD/USD buyers towards the 100-DMA hurdle of near 0.6765.
Key Notes
AUD/USD floats near two-week high past 0.6700 as fears of banking collapse ease, RBA Minutes eyed
AUD/USD Forecast: Bullish bias, testing the 0.6725 resistance area
About the RBA minutes
The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meetings are published two weeks after the interest rate decision. The minutes give a full account of the policy discussion, including differences of view. They also record the votes of the individual members of the Committee. Generally speaking, if the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook for the economy, then the markets see a higher possibility of a rate increase, and that is positive for the AUD.
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