When are the Eurozone Preliminary CPIs/ GDP and how could they affect EUR/USD?


Eurozone Preliminary CPIs and GDP overview

Eurostat will publish the first estimate of Eurozone inflation and growth figures for April and Q1 2020 respectively at 0900 GMT today.

The headline CPI is anticipated to drop to 0.1% YoY while the core inflation is also seen down to 0.7% YoY during the reported month.

On an annualized basis, the bloc’s economy is seen contracting 3.1% in Q1 while inter-quarter the GDP rate is expected to drop sharply to 3.5% vs. +0.1% previous.

Deviation impact on EUR/USD

Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 20 pips in deviations up to 3 to -4, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 30-45 pips.

How could affect EUR/USD?

Yohay Elam, FXStreet's Senior Analyst, offers important technical levels ahead of the key release: “The Technical Confluences Indicator is showing that euro/dollar is trading above a significant support line at 1.0864, which is the convergence of the Simple Moving Average 10-15m, the Bollinger Band 15min-Middle, the BB 1h-Middle, and the Fibonacci 38.2% one-day. Even more robust support awaits at 1.0837, which is a juncture including the SMA 50-4h, the SMA 200-1h, the Fibonacci 61.8% one-week, and the Pivot Point one-day Support 1.”

“Looking up, somewhat weaker resistance awaits at 1.0879, which is the confluence of the previous year's low and the BB 1h-Upper. Next up, 1.09 is the meeting point of the previous weekly high and the PP one-day R1,” Yohay adds.

Key notes

German Retail Sales plunge 5.6% MoM in March vs. -7.3% expected

Will ECB help for a EUR/USD 1.09 test/break?

EUR/USD Forecast: Bulls struggle to make it through 1.0900 mark, ECB eyed for fresh impetus

About Eurozone Preliminary CPIs and GDP estimate

The Euro Zone CPI released by the Eurostat captures the changes in the price of goods and services. The CPI is a significant way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation in the Euro Zone. Generally, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

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