USD/TRY spikes to 8.7450, tracks the US dollar rebound


  • USD/TRY breaks the bearish consolidation phase to the upside.
  • The spot tracks the rebound in the US dollar amid a risk-off mood.
  • EBRD lifts Turkey’s GDP forecast, US data in focus.

USD/TRY is off the highs but preserves a major part of the latest rally to 8.7440, thanks to the resurgent demand for the US dollar.

The spot broke the recent bearish consolidative mode to the upside, as the bulls caught a fresh bid wave and lifted the safe-haven demand for the greenback across the board.

Fears over the rapid spread of Delta covid strain and its impact on the global economic recovery are flaring up and dampening the investors’ sentiment.

It’s worth noting that Turkey has halted flights and all direct travel from Bangladesh, Brazil, South Africa, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka due to new variants.

Meanwhile, the Turkish lira fails to find any respite from the latest economic forecasts from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) released on Tuesday. The lender lifted Turkey’s GDP growth forecast to 5.5% in 2021, adding that it sees a 4% GDP growth in 2022 amid signs of pick up in tourism.

Next of relevance for the currency pair remains the US CB Consumer Confidence and housing data while the broader market sentiment will be also closely followed.

USD/TRY technical levels

“100-SMA around 8.6175 acts as the tough nut to crack for the USD/TRY bears before directing them towards the monthly low of 8.2775. During the fall, the mid-June tops near 8.5900 may entertain the sellers. Alternatively, corrective pullback needs to cross the previous support line, near 8.7400, to recall the buyers,” FXStreet’s Analyst Anil Panchal explains.

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