USD/JPY Price Analysis: Clings to gains near 200-hour SMA, around 105.35-40 region

  • USD/JPY staged a goodish rebound from sub-105.00 levels amid resurgent USD demand.
  • The set-up favours bullish traders and supports prospects for additional near-term gains.
  • A move towards the 105.70 region, en-route the 106.00 mark, looks a distinct possibility.

The USD/JPY pair showed some resilience below the key 105.00 psychological mark and staged a modest recovery from one-and-half-week lows set earlier this Tuesday. The pair, for now, seems to have snapped four consecutive days of the losing streak, albeit lacked any strong follow-through buying.

A goodish US dollar rebound from six-week lows was seen as a key factor that extended some support and assisted the pair to gain some positive traction. However, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment underpinned the safe-haven Japanese yen and kept a lid on any further gains for the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent positive move from multi-month lows touched in January has been along an upward sloping channel. The formation points to a well-established short-term bullish trend, which, along with the emergence of some dip-buying, supports prospects for a further appreciating move.

The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that technical indicators on the daily chart are still holding in the bullish territory. Hence, a subsequent strength back towards an intermediate hurdle near the 105.70 horizontal zone, en-route the 106.00 round-figure mark, now looks a distinct possibility.

On the flip side, the 105.00-104.90 region (ascending channel support) should continue to protect the immediate downside. A sustained breakthrough will negate the near-term bullish bias and prompt some aggressive technical selling, turning the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to slide back towards the 104.40 area.

The downfall could further get extended towards the 104.00 round-figure mark before the USD/JPY pair eventually drops to the 103.45 support area. The next relevant downside target would be the 103.00 round-figure mark ahead of YTD lows, around the 102.60-55 region touched on January 6.

USD/JPY 1-hourly chart


Technical levels to watch


Today last price 105.39
Today Daily Change 0.31
Today Daily Change % 0.30
Today daily open 105.08
Daily SMA20 105.01
Daily SMA50 104.14
Daily SMA100 104.39
Daily SMA200 105.49
Previous Daily High 105.84
Previous Daily Low 104.98
Previous Weekly High 106.22
Previous Weekly Low 104.92
Previous Monthly High 104.94
Previous Monthly Low 102.59
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 105.31
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 105.52
Daily Pivot Point S1 104.76
Daily Pivot Point S2 104.44
Daily Pivot Point S3 103.9
Daily Pivot Point R1 105.62
Daily Pivot Point R2 106.16
Daily Pivot Point R3 106.48



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