USD/JPY has staying power in the 115 area

  • USD/JPY bulls eye higher levels to come on Fed sentiment.
  • The Fed is turning more and more hawkish as inflation fears ramp up.

USD/JPY is holding in the 115 area around 115.35 and sat in a Thanksgiving range of 115.24/45 as it consolidates the recent Federal Reserve sentiment as the hawks circle over 2051 Constitution Ave. 

Some short-squeezing in JPY has seemed warranted by some support to US 10-year yields so far and since mid-November given how overstretched the yen’s net-short positioning was. However, the pair could be here to stay. Nevertheless, the US dollar slipped slightly on Thursday. Traders are away for the holidays, but the greenback remains in a positive territory around the highest levels seen since July 2020 against the euro and in the DXY index. The greenback has strengthened due to the markets anticipating that the US Federal Reserve will hike rates sooner than other major central banks.

On Wednesday, the minutes of the Fed's Nov. 2-3 meeting were supporting the case for a higher US dollar but did little on the day to send it much higher. There could be a delayed reaction here, perhaps with investors taking profits on long positions overall ahead of the long weekend.

However, the minutes have indicated that board members had become more concerned about rising inflation. p The December meeting will be a significant meeting whereby the pace of tapering of their bond-buying programme could start as many members have already advocated. as such the markets are getting set for a sooner than first anticipated liftoff.

USD/JPY levels

The hawkish bias is expected to keep USD/JPY afloat. Analysts at Commerzbank expect more from the pair with the 115.60 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move down from 2015 being in focus. ''Above here is the 117.56 level, the 1998-2021 resistance line and 119.41, the downtrend from 1975. We have a near term uptrend at 113.92.''


Today last price 115.36
Today Daily Change -0.01
Today Daily Change % -0.01
Today daily open 115.37
Daily SMA20 114.07
Daily SMA50 112.9
Daily SMA100 111.41
Daily SMA200 110.25
Previous Daily High 115.52
Previous Daily Low 114.82
Previous Weekly High 114.97
Previous Weekly Low 113.59
Previous Monthly High 114.7
Previous Monthly Low 110.82
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 115.26
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 115.09
Daily Pivot Point S1 114.96
Daily Pivot Point S2 114.54
Daily Pivot Point S3 114.26
Daily Pivot Point R1 115.65
Daily Pivot Point R2 115.94
Daily Pivot Point R3 116.35




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