USD/INR stays below 71.00 amid calls of RBI, Indian government measures

  • USD/INR repeats the pattern of gain and loss while trading below 100-day SMA.
  • RBI is up for another OMO, likely to shift its policy stance.
  • The Indian government is rolling sleeves to confront depleting revenues, fears of a slowdown.

USD/INR is on the back foot while trading around 70.97 during the pre-European session on Friday. The pair fails to portray the overall US dollar strength, like other currency pairs, maybe due to the cautious optimism as well as China data.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is up for another Open Market Operation (OMO), the fourth one recently, wherein it will simultaneously buy and sell the government bonds on January 23. The same is mostly termed as “Operation Twist”, as said by Bloomberg. On a different note, analysts at ING said, “We consider 7% GDP growth a pre-requisite for the RBI to unwind some of its recent policy easings. That’s not on our forecasting horizon out to 2021. A shift in the policy stance to neutral from accommodative is a reasonable starting point for the central bank's next policy meeting in early February.”

Further, the Indian government is also active to announce various plans to boost its revenues while also pleasing the voters in its upcoming budget via multiple tax reliefs and changes to payment recovery structures, opening up for foreign investments, etc.

The market’s risk tone might also have been positive as China registered upbeat releases of December month Industrial Production and Retail Sales. However, gains were capped by no change in the headline GDP figures for the fourth quarter (Q4).

The USD registered broad gains the previous day after the US data marked upbeat results. Also supporting the greenback were expectations of the Trump administration to be in the ruling position after signing the recent trade deals with global giants.

Traders will now focus on the US data as well as trade headlines amid a lack of Indian catalysts.

Technical Analysis

Prices are capped within the 75-pip area comprising 100 and 200-day SMAs between 71.25 and 70.5 respectively.

Additional important levels

Today last price 70.9705
Today Daily Change -0.0119
Today Daily Change % -0.02%
Today daily open 70.9824
Daily SMA20 71.2498
Daily SMA50 71.3522
Daily SMA100 71.262
Daily SMA200 70.5067
Previous Daily High 71.1675
Previous Daily Low 70.6925
Previous Weekly High 72.57
Previous Weekly Low 70.8485
Previous Monthly High 71.98
Previous Monthly Low 70.328
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 70.9861
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 70.8739
Daily Pivot Point S1 70.7274
Daily Pivot Point S2 70.4725
Daily Pivot Point S3 70.2524
Daily Pivot Point R1 71.2024
Daily Pivot Point R2 71.4225
Daily Pivot Point R3 71.6774



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