USD/INR: Risk-off may weigh over Indian Rupee

  • Rupee may be offered due to a risk-off tone in the global markets.
  • The Indian government's focus on fiscal prudence may restrict losses in INR. 
  • USD/INR has established 71.44 as key support in the last three days. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) may come under pressure on Wednesday, courtesy of the renewed US-China political tensions and the resulting risk-off tone in the equity markets. The downside, however, may be capped by the Indian government's focus on fiscal prudence.

The futures on the S&P 500 fell 0.25% and the AUD/JPY pair, a risk barometer, shed 30 pips in Asia after China's foreign ministry threatened retaliation over the decision by the US Senate to pass legislation aimed at protecting the human rights in Hong Kong.

Further, President Trump on Tuesday said that the US will raise tariffs on China if the world's second-largest economy does not agree to a trade deal that he wants.

The downside in the INR, however, could be restricted by the Indian government's decision to keep intact the fiscal deficit target of 3.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) for the current financial year despite the slowdown in the economy.

Also, China's rate cut may restrict losses in the equities, helping the INR avoid big losses. China reduced the one-year loan prime rate to 4.15% from 4.20% and the five-year rate to 4.80% from 4.85%.

USD/INR closed at 71.72 on Tuesday, representing a 0.17% drop on the day. Sellers have failed to penetrate the area around 71.44 over the last three days.

Technical levels


Today last price 71.825
Today Daily Change -0.0055
Today Daily Change % -0.01
Today daily open 71.8305
Daily SMA20 71.2372
Daily SMA50 71.1575
Daily SMA100 70.7191
Daily SMA200 70.2134
Previous Daily High 72.18
Previous Daily Low 71.611
Previous Weekly High 72.37
Previous Weekly Low 70.97
Previous Monthly High 71.79
Previous Monthly Low 70.6425
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 71.8284
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 71.9626
Daily Pivot Point S1 71.5677
Daily Pivot Point S2 71.3048
Daily Pivot Point S3 70.9987
Daily Pivot Point R1 72.1367
Daily Pivot Point R2 72.4428
Daily Pivot Point R3 72.7057



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