- USD/INR fades bounce from one-month low, struggles to extend corrective pullback of late.
- 200-SMA, short-term falling trend line test recovery moves ahead of mid-April low.
- 61.8% Fibonacci retracement acts as additional downside filter.
USD/INR prints mild gains around 73.91 while keeping the previous day’s recovery moves during early Tuesday. Even so, the pair fails to cross 200-SMA amid a downward sloping Momentum line, which in turn favors further selling of the quote.
It should, however, be noted that the latest low near 73.80 will challenge intraday selling ahead of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of March-April upside close to 73.50.
If at all USD/INR sellers keep reins past-73.50, March-end low near 73.10 and the 73.00 threshold will be the key to watch.
Alternatively, an upside break of 200-SMA around 74.00 needs validation from a descending resistance line from April 22, near 74.20, to recall USD/INR buyers.
Also likely to challenge the pair’s recovery moves is the mid-April low of 74.30.
Overall, USD/INR is in a bearish trajectory but intermediate bounces can’t be ruled out.
USD/INR four-hour chart
Trend: Further weakness expected
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